Raw odds wise it has about a 45% chance of landfall isomewhere, and 55% chance for recurve today. (Source) For the us chances for landfall are about 23% , and 77% recurve.
From looking at the overall situation though, I have to agree with the odds. Katia will likely stay well north of the eastern Caribbean on Sunday. I find plenty that would keep it north and not so much that wouldn't. And the only land threat with a reasonable odds right now is probably Bermuda or extreme eastern Canada late next week.
The system in the northwest Caribbean is a lot more interesting.
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