There is a ridge north of Katia. There is a weakness forecast in that ridge to move east, allowing Katia through the ridge in around a week, somewhere south to southeast of Bermuda.
As people who watch eastern Atlantic hurricanes know, forecasting of these weaknesses in ridges is often fraught with error: they often develop at different speeds and strengths when forecast this far out. While generally the weaknesses in the ridge do manifest, the exact location is not guaranteed, and whether the tropical cyclone will find the weakness strong enough to allow it to move through is also not guaranteed.
We therefore are in a waiting game for the next several days as models get closer and closer to the event. Once we are 1-2 days away from the weaknesses being near Katia, we should have a much better understanding of how strong the weaknesses will be and whether Katia will likely take it. The question is also as to the exact position of that weaknesses, and thus how close to Bermuda or the Atlantic coast Katia will come when it passes through that break.
A lot of unknowns, and very few knowns, at this early point in watching Katia.
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