That weakness is the fairly significant ULL that is digging in around 25N and 55W. That seems to be the uncertainty in the forecast right now. The Discussion noted it was expected to retrograde to the SW. It looks vigorous on the WV and if it does not weaken or move westward it could impede development of Katia and create significant SW'ly shear. This is the weakness that is expected influence the track. The question being posed in some circles is What If: a significant tropical system pops up in the central GOM (alaGFS) in a few days and the affects that may have on the weakness in the ATL?
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