Am not at all getting the "warm and fuzzies" regarding 93L. Prior to those oil rig reports, I was eyeing the vis. satellite and took note of a point of low level turning close to 28N and 90W. Of course this could be an "eddie", and/or a point where a low level is trying to form. Ultimately, it will take a little time for convection to maintain itself, and thus start to wrap around such a center. Given current shear, this is the near term saving grace. Once we get a solid CDO, though....., looks like steering is nebulous at best. Those wind reports ( especially the strong winds coming out of the SSE ( 140 degrees ), further implies to me that a possible center might be near or slightly west of 90W.
Almost strikes me as a possible "wetter/larger" version of Elena - Labor Day Weekend 1985. The system came off the coast of Cuba I think, started going toward the Northwest and threatened the Texas E. Gulf Coast, then "zigged" east a little, than "zagged" back west and I think came ashore on the Louisiana coastline.
Models are all over the place still, but I know one thing...., Katia "should" be bending more to the NW, but is presently getting sheared and perhaps less responsive to the mid level steering weakness to its Northwest. It appears to be racing more or less Westward at the moment. Now I know Texas really could use the rains from what may turn into "Lee", but despite Texas being as parched as it is, am not to sure it would be good news for the Conus, to see a pattern that could see a "potential" storm in the Gulf starting to head Southwest or Westward. Should the large mid/upper ridge thats been sitting over the Southern Plains finally decide to nudge it's influence eastward, than the Conus might see greater risk from systems approaching from the deep tropics and farther east.
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