Loc: Orlando, FL
The Three Storms
Mon Sep 05 2011 03:17 PM
7:00AM EDT 8 September Update
Not all that much has changed since yesterday except Nate's continued southerly drifting has pretty much eliminated the chance of it moving much more northward, thus the eventual Track toward Mexico seems, by far, the most likely. It is forecast to landfall Sunday night as a hurricane in Mexico.
Katia continues to race to the northeast away from the US, eventually the remnants will likely be near Scotland Monday. Note for those in the UK, it will be a large extratropical storm, so winds will be high even into Ireland, Britain, and Wales.
Maria remains barely a tropical storm Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for the northern Leeward islands and Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico and the lower Leewards have a tropical storm watch. The odds still favor a recurve before the US, and also keep it weak the entire time.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Lee continue to dump flooding rains in the Northeast, including parts of West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Viriginia and Marlyand, (Enough to go tubing on highways in some parts)
3:45PM EDT 8 September Update
Recon found stronger winds in Nate despite a lack of a organized core and poor appearance on infrared and microwave energy. Those in along the Gulf coast will want to continue to monitor Nate as it isn't moving much, and forecast is a bit rough with stationary/meandering systems.
Maria's holding as a weak sheared Tropical Storm, which implies a more westerly movement. It's likely to continue to be sheared for days, remaining relatively weak, which suggest the trend westward may continue. Odds still favor it staying east of Florida, but it may be a close call, close enough to monitor through next week.
9:15PM EDT 7 September Update
Tropical Storms Maria and Nate both formed today, one (Maria) heading toward the Northern Leeward Islands by Saturday and another headed toward the Mexican coastline (Nate).
Katia continues to move out to sea, interestingly it may arrive near Scotland as an extratropical storm before completely losing it's identity.
The odds still favor Maria staying east of the US, but this depends on trends over the next few days.
Based on the forecast track of Nate, it will enter into Mexico as a hurricane and has very little chance of getting rain up into Texas, unfortunately.
6:45AM EDT 7 September Update
Katia's moving northwest, a bit weaker this morning and will likely travel between the US and Bermuda and make no landfall. Tropical storm watches are up for Bermuda as they may see some tropical storm force winds coming from the east side of Katia as it passes. Along the US east coast, rough surf and strong currents along the beaches will likely continue.
Tropical Depression 14 is likely to become a Tropical Storm later today, and is forecast to near the northern Leeward islands on Satruday, those in that area should watch closely. Beyond that see the forecast lounge. Summary, it appears this system will stay just east of the US, but may get uncomfortably close, those in the Bahamas will likely want to watch it. Those in the US will want to watch the second half of next week, but currently odds only slightly favor it staying just east.. Aircraft recon is scheduled to check it out later today.
The area in the Gulf (96L) may develop today or tomorrow and move slowly, eventually drifting northward, those in the Northern gulf will want to watch this later. Dry air on the west side and shear will likely keep this system from getting too strong, however.
The other area near the Leeward islands likely won't develop in the near term, but may need to be watched if it remains intact as it moves into the Western Caribbean.
5PM EDT Sept. 6 Update
Invest 95L has become TD#14. At this time, FOURTEEN is expected to continue generally west to west-northwest through marginally favorable conditions for the next several days, and may become a concern for the northern islands later this week.
Meanwhile, the tail end of Lee's feeder leg which has merged with a stalled cold front over the Bay of Campeche in the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico are beginning to show some signs of organization, and a Tropical Cyclone could develop in this region over the course of the next few days. This feature is being tracked as Invest 96L. Movement is presently estimated to be towards the south, or southeast, but there is a fair chance that this course reverses. Unless 96L does hook back around, it may just rain out over land south of the Bay of Campeche, or even cross over into the eastern Pacific.
Tennessee is currently getting the most rain from the remnants of Lee, as well as Mississippi, Alabama, Northwest Georgia.and Western North Carolina. Heavy, flooding rains, will be a problem there over the next day or two. Strong thunderstorms and possible tornadoes may occur along with the remnants of Lee.
The winds on the dry, west side of lee have fanned fires in Texas.
Hurricane Katia is nearing major hurricane status this afternoon, but the forecast track keeps it away from any land.
A new wave, east of the Caribbean in the Atlantic, designated 95L, is the one to watch over the upcoming week. Those in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico especially.
Beyond that odds currently favor a recurve away from the US with the trough over the United States. But it may be a close call. Based on the long range models and heading for a similar period, this one has a much better chance to affect the US coast than Katia ever did, however, so it is justifiably worth watching once the system develops. It currently has a 60% chance of development over the next two days.
Guadelopue/Leewards Radar recording for Maria's approach
Long term Central Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Long term West Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)