Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

Yep, is looking like models are better coming together in the eventual development of an eventual tropical system. The 12Z GFS seems to bring itself more in-line with the EURO and thus my best guess is that most likely location to potentially get tagged by "Tropical Storm Ho-Hum" might be between Tallahassee and Ceder Key. Am certainly not downplaying the real risks that shallow Gulf waters can create in terms of flooding, nor the significant rains that may impact a broad swath of area. Thus far however, we have been quite lucky to avert the anticipated risk that this active season was bringing with it. Given that we will likely be initially dealing with a baroclinic system, and the fact that most models don't have this system "stewing" for any long period of time, once again we might prove fortunate and only have a moderate to strong Tropical Storm for the N. Gulf Coast to contend with. Certainly not anticipating the risk of a major hurricane out of this ( though I could see a blocking pattern delaying and slowing landfall towards the end of its cycle ). Unless all reliable models are wrong, I cannot see how South Florida is impacted any worse than gusty winds and perhaps 2"-4" of rain.

Perhaps of greater risk ( and possible concern ) might be what large, slow moving, & deepening system might follow 1-2 weeks later. Models continue to indicate more potential for development throughout the W. Caribbean. Latest MJO phase would seem to be in tandem with what would normally be a climatologically active area.

Post Extras

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US

ADS