Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


TD-like #94L has moved inland over Central America with heavy rains and gusty winds. Wave approaching Antilles but shear is high.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 6 (Michael) , Major: 6 (Michael) Florida - Any: 6 (Michael) Major: 6 (Michael)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2010s >> 2012 Storm Forum

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2012
      Sun Jan 01 2012 12:46 AM

CSU decided not to issue a quantitative (numerical) forecast in December because they felt that ENSO forecasts do not show any skill at the 6 to 9 month forecast period (probably true) but I think that a forecast is still feasible - if nothing more than an initial starting point which can be based on long range SST projections that are still being issued by NOAA. TSR did issue an initial outlook for 2012 on 12/7/11 with a forecast of 14/7/3.

NOAA expects the current La Nina to continue through the Summer of the 2012 hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. They also expect that the SST anomaly over just about the entire Atlantic basin will remain neutral for the full tropical season. With that expectation, the best analog years for 2012 would seem to be 1956 (8/4/2), 1975 (9/6/3), 1971 (13/6/2) and 1932 (11/6/4). 1932 is more for likely track pattern rather than numbers. 2000 (15/8/3) was also considered, but rejected as a good analog because during 2000 a warm anomaly (rather than a neutral condition) existed in the central Atlantic along 30N.

My initial outlook for the 2012 season is for 11 or 12 named storms (I'll firm up the number in the Spring) with 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes - pretty much a normal season of activity. Primary U.S. landfall threat zone looks like the Florida panhandle westward to the Texas coast (all of it). In other words, the initial pattern suggests more of a northern Gulf Coast season for 2012, but that could certainly change in the next six months.

If you feel the urge, you can add your own initial thoughts for the upcoming season - and your numbers can be revised as often as you wish until this thread gets closed on June 1st. You don't need to provide any rationale for your numbers - unless you wish to.
Cheers,
ED

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun Jan 01 2012 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jun 01 2012 12:02 AM
. * * 2012 Seasonal Forecast Results Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Oct 18 2012 11:15 AM
. * * Re: 2012 Seasonal Forecast Results - Updated Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Oct 26 2012 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 IMTechspec   Thu May 31 2012 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 beachcrafts   Wed May 30 2012 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 LoisCane   Wed May 30 2012 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 31 2012 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 weathernet   Thu May 31 2012 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 MikeCAdministrator   Thu May 31 2012 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 30 2012 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 srquirrely   Thu May 31 2012 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 okihabu   Wed May 30 2012 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 cieldumort   Mon May 28 2012 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 danielwAdministrator   Mon May 28 2012 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 gsand   Sun May 27 2012 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Bloodstar   Sun May 27 2012 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 stormtiger   Fri May 25 2012 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Mar 02 2012 09:49 AM
. * * Outlook for 2012 rmbjoe1954   Mon Apr 30 2012 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Wed May 09 2012 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 M.A.   Thu May 10 2012 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Apr 01 2012 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Apr 04 2012 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat May 19 2012 12:10 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue May 22 2012 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 LoisCane   Thu May 24 2012 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Lamar-Plant City   Tue May 29 2012 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 riche   Thu May 24 2012 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 GlenJohnson   Sat May 19 2012 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 jessiej   Wed May 16 2012 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 doug   Tue Apr 10 2012 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 doug   Tue Apr 17 2012 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 ftlaudbob   Tue Apr 17 2012 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 GlenJohnson   Fri Apr 27 2012 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 MichaelA   Sun Apr 29 2012 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 weathernet   Mon Apr 30 2012 12:58 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 B.C.Francis   Sun Mar 11 2012 03:20 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 28874

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center