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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Storm Forum
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2012
      Fri Mar 02 2012 09:49 AM

The latest NCEP forecast issued on February 27th suggests that ENSO Neutral conditions in the Spring will evolve to a weak El Nino during the Summer that will become a weak to moderate El Nino in the Fall/Winter. Neutral SST anomalies in the tropical north Atlantic are expected to shift to a warmer than normal basin for the September through November timeframe. With the basin anomaly now expected to be turning warmer during the peak and the latter portion of the hurricane season, the 2012 seasonal outlook for Atlantic tropical cyclones now indicates a slightly above normal level of activity.

The expectation is for 13 named storms with 8 of them becoming hurricanes and 4 becoming major hurricanes. The best analog years are now: 1996: 13/9/4 2001: 15/9/4 1951: 10/8/5

Although no particular target area is indicated by the analog years, the entire East coast seems likely to remain as the primary threat zone for 2012 activity.

For those that wish to post their expectations for the season, this thread will remain open until the season gets underway on June 1st.
Cheers,
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator Fri Mar 02 2012 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jun 01 2012 12:02 AM
. * * 2012 Seasonal Forecast Results Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Oct 18 2012 11:15 AM
. * * Re: 2012 Seasonal Forecast Results - Updated Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Oct 26 2012 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 IMTechspec   Thu May 31 2012 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 beachcrafts   Wed May 30 2012 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 LoisCane   Wed May 30 2012 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 31 2012 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 weathernet   Thu May 31 2012 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 MikeCAdministrator   Thu May 31 2012 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 30 2012 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 srquirrely   Thu May 31 2012 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 okihabu   Wed May 30 2012 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 cieldumort   Mon May 28 2012 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 danielwAdministrator   Mon May 28 2012 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 gsand   Sun May 27 2012 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Bloodstar   Sun May 27 2012 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 stormtiger   Fri May 25 2012 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Mar 02 2012 09:49 AM
. * * Outlook for 2012 rmbjoe1954   Mon Apr 30 2012 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Wed May 09 2012 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 M.A.   Thu May 10 2012 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Apr 01 2012 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Apr 04 2012 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat May 19 2012 12:10 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue May 22 2012 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 LoisCane   Thu May 24 2012 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Lamar-Plant City   Tue May 29 2012 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 riche   Thu May 24 2012 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 GlenJohnson   Sat May 19 2012 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 jessiej   Wed May 16 2012 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 doug   Tue Apr 10 2012 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 doug   Tue Apr 17 2012 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 ftlaudbob   Tue Apr 17 2012 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 GlenJohnson   Fri Apr 27 2012 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 MichaelA   Sun Apr 29 2012 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 weathernet   Mon Apr 30 2012 12:58 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 B.C.Francis   Sun Mar 11 2012 03:20 PM

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