The latest NCEP forecast issued on February 27th suggests that ENSO Neutral conditions in the Spring will evolve to a weak El Nino during the Summer that will become a weak to moderate El Nino in the Fall/Winter. Neutral SST anomalies in the tropical north Atlantic are expected to shift to a warmer than normal basin for the September through November timeframe. With the basin anomaly now expected to be turning warmer during the peak and the latter portion of the hurricane season, the 2012 seasonal outlook for Atlantic tropical cyclones now indicates a slightly above normal level of activity.
The expectation is for 13 named storms with 8 of them becoming hurricanes and 4 becoming major hurricanes. The best analog years are now: 1996: 13/9/4 2001: 15/9/4 1951: 10/8/5
Although no particular target area is indicated by the analog years, the entire East coast seems likely to remain as the primary threat zone for 2012 activity.
For those that wish to post their expectations for the season, this thread will remain open until the season gets underway on June 1st. Cheers, ED
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