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Archives >> 2012 Storm Forum

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2211
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2012
      Sun Apr 01 2012 09:51 AM

Latest expectation still suggest ENSO neutral conditions this Spring will warm to a modest El Nino event by late Summer and Fall in the eastern and central tropical Pacific. The tropical Atlantic SSTs are now expected to remain neutral throughout the hurricane season - and slightly cooler than previously forecast.

On April 4th, CSU will issue its tropical cyclone forecast for the 2012 season, and an earlier discussion issued by CSU on March 21st suggested that the upcoming season is expected to be less active than normal.

With the likelihood that the tropical Atlantic will be a little cooler than previously expected and considerably cooler than last season, a downward adjustment in the 2012 Outlook seems realistic. I've lowered by expectations to a more normal to slightly less than normal level of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The new best-fit analog years are 2009, 2006 and 1968.
ADDED: 1951 is also a reasonably good analog year.
There is a good chance for an early season storm (June or earlier) this year.

Now its your turn to post your own forecast for the season - rationale is welcomed, but not required. Please post specific numbers for number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes rather than a range of numbers, i.e., 10/5/2 rather than 9-11, 4-6, and 1-3. At the end of the season we'll take a look back and see how well we did. This thread will remain open until the start of the hurricane season on June 1st - up until then you can adjust your forecast as many times as you wish.

Cheers,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Apr 04 2012 09:25 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun Apr 01 2012 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jun 01 2012 12:02 AM
. * * 2012 Seasonal Forecast Results Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Oct 18 2012 11:15 AM
. * * Re: 2012 Seasonal Forecast Results - Updated Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Oct 26 2012 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 IMTechspec   Thu May 31 2012 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 beachcrafts   Wed May 30 2012 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 LoisCane   Wed May 30 2012 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 31 2012 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 weathernet   Thu May 31 2012 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 MikeCAdministrator   Thu May 31 2012 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 30 2012 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 srquirrely   Thu May 31 2012 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 okihabu   Wed May 30 2012 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 cieldumort   Mon May 28 2012 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 danielwAdministrator   Mon May 28 2012 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 gsand   Sun May 27 2012 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Bloodstar   Sun May 27 2012 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 stormtiger   Fri May 25 2012 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Mar 02 2012 09:49 AM
. * * Outlook for 2012 rmbjoe1954   Mon Apr 30 2012 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Wed May 09 2012 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 M.A.   Thu May 10 2012 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Apr 01 2012 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Apr 04 2012 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat May 19 2012 12:10 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue May 22 2012 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 LoisCane   Thu May 24 2012 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Lamar-Plant City   Tue May 29 2012 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 riche   Thu May 24 2012 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 GlenJohnson   Sat May 19 2012 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 jessiej   Wed May 16 2012 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 doug   Tue Apr 10 2012 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 doug   Tue Apr 17 2012 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 ftlaudbob   Tue Apr 17 2012 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 GlenJohnson   Fri Apr 27 2012 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 MichaelA   Sun Apr 29 2012 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 weathernet   Mon Apr 30 2012 12:58 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 B.C.Francis   Sun Mar 11 2012 03:20 PM

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