In the Atlantic, the earlier forecast for slightly cooler than normal SSTs has changed to a forecast for slightly warmer than normal SSTs. In the Pacific, the earlier forecast for moderate El Nino conditions during the upcoming hurricane season has been revised to ENSO neutral to a weak El Nino. These trends indicate slightly more favorable conditions for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone formation, but upper air conditions are still expected to be less than ideal for tropical cyclone formation this year. 2006, 1976, 1951 and 1968 remain as the best analog years for the 2012 season.
In less than two weeks this thread will close when the season starts. You still have time to throw your hat and your forecast for the total number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes into the thread before June 1st. We'll summarize the forecasts at the end of the season and see how well we did. Cheers, ED
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