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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Storm Forum

cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Outlook for 2012
      Mon May 28 2012 08:08 PM

Greetings, everyone. I hope you are having a safe and healthy 2012.

My best guess for 2012 is for 14 storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 majors.

It is worth noting that we have had two named storms, already.

Despite these roughly "average" totals (at least since 1995 has been concerned), I expect a greater chance for landfalls, including higher than average odds of US landfalls.

If I am right, and we have fewer names, but more landfalls than usual, that means that a larger percentage of 2012 named systems than usual in the Atlantic basin will impact land - which would just go to show how average (and of course even below average totals) do not necessarily result in average to below average impacts.

My rationale for 14, 6 and 3 may easily be busted - and perhaps by a lot, should:

1) an El Nino begins prior to September (expect my guess could be much too high in that case) , OR

2) we actually slide back into a La Nina phase by September (expect my guess could be much too low in that case).

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon May 28 2012 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jun 01 2012 12:02 AM
. * * 2012 Seasonal Forecast Results Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Oct 18 2012 11:15 AM
. * * Re: 2012 Seasonal Forecast Results - Updated Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Oct 26 2012 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 IMTechspec   Thu May 31 2012 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 beachcrafts   Wed May 30 2012 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 LoisCane   Wed May 30 2012 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 31 2012 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 weathernet   Thu May 31 2012 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 MikeCAdministrator   Thu May 31 2012 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 30 2012 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 srquirrely   Thu May 31 2012 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 okihabu   Wed May 30 2012 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 cieldumort   Mon May 28 2012 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 danielwAdministrator   Mon May 28 2012 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 gsand   Sun May 27 2012 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Bloodstar   Sun May 27 2012 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 stormtiger   Fri May 25 2012 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Mar 02 2012 09:49 AM
. * * Outlook for 2012 rmbjoe1954   Mon Apr 30 2012 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Wed May 09 2012 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 M.A.   Thu May 10 2012 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Apr 01 2012 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Apr 04 2012 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat May 19 2012 12:10 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue May 22 2012 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 LoisCane   Thu May 24 2012 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 Lamar-Plant City   Tue May 29 2012 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 riche   Thu May 24 2012 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 GlenJohnson   Sat May 19 2012 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 jessiej   Wed May 16 2012 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 doug   Tue Apr 10 2012 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 doug   Tue Apr 17 2012 12:52 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 ftlaudbob   Tue Apr 17 2012 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 GlenJohnson   Fri Apr 27 2012 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 MichaelA   Sun Apr 29 2012 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 weathernet   Mon Apr 30 2012 12:58 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2012 B.C.Francis   Sun Mar 11 2012 03:20 PM

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