got close on erika. intensity slightly overdone, toss up on whether it was a hurricane at landfall. 987mb is usually paired with a marginal cat 1.. though i remember gabrielle hitting florida in sep 2001 at 980 and still being a t.s. my location was decent.. i had it a 'few' miles south of the border.. i was thinking on the order of 10. turned out to be closer to 30. C performance overall.
the waves.. already hear some people calling the first one a fish spinner. uh.. what? it hasn't even developed.. you can't make a call with any real weight until that happens. if it develops way out there then yes, it will probably go north of the islands. closer it develops, more likely it is heard from. nogaps is being hesitant to deepen it on more recent runs, and that i'd take with more weight than gfs. i'm still on the development wagon for now, though.
how many hurricanes went north of the islands and still hit the u.s. later? try andrew donna and floyd for starters.. some gfs runs are bringing the leader system to just off hatteras in 10 days or so, which is remarkable in itself as gfs likes to recurve everything east of bermuda. so i think making a fish spinner call is very premature, even if it's probably not island music, even if odds are for it. gfs is a good long range tool, but it doesn't handle well intensity or exact timing of troughs if the pattern is changing.. and it is evolving. if NAO goes strongly negative again late in the month then look out, because this one will be in the neighborhood.
as for this morning there isn't much in the way of change. still disturbed weather in the sw carib that is too close to land to do anything. if any wave energy can interact with the trough that dug in behind erika off the southeast we'd have an interesting situation, but that doesn't appear to be happening. swirls in the central atlantic look about the same.. both going north and out. east atlantic waves aren't any better organized.. the one at 29w is still quite impressive but sheared from the east.. the others are devoid of convection for the most part. basin should be devoid of active systems later today.
the strange note of the day is that some models appear to be picking up on an eastpac reflection of erika in 3 days or so. keeping my eye for the unusual trained there.
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