F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 229 (Idalia) , Major: 229 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 229 (Idalia) Major: 229 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 10 day GFS Forecast
      Thu Jun 14 2012 01:04 PM

Multiple long range models are hinting at a possible system in the Western Caribbean in the next week. Although I haven't seen any strong indications of a strong system. The CMC and GFS are hinting at a 850 mb level vortice. This would be near the 5,000 ft above sea level altitude.

Both the New Orleans,LA and Jackson,MS morning Area Forecast Discussion mention the possibility of tropical development in the W Caribbean or Bay of Campeche areas.

Further mention is in the Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion.
FXUS02 KWNH 141144
PREEPD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
741 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012

VALID 12Z MON JUN 18 2012 - 12Z THU JUN 21 2012
edited~danielw
CURRENT MJO ENTERING PHASES 8 AND 1 CONTINUES SHOWING FAVORABLE
VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AT H200 AND H850 OVER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC/ CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX.
BROAD SCALE ANOMALOUS H850 WESTERLY FLOW IN THE TROPICAL EPAC
SUPPORTS DOWNSTREAM BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER TEH
WESTERN CARRIBEAN AND GULFMEX AIDING IN POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING VARIOUS FORMS OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH THE EPAC AND WRN CARIB/LOWER GLFMEX
BASINS AND EXPECT THAT SOME FORM OF TROPICAL DVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
OR BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE PERIOD OR THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

All of the MJO forecasts that I have viewed indicate some development in the Western Caribbean in the next week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 10 day GFS Forecast danielwAdministrator Thu Jun 14 2012 01:04 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 10 2012 11:56 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast scottsvb   Sun May 13 2012 01:31 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast M.A.   Tue Jun 12 2012 07:45 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 14 2012 01:04 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast weathernet   Thu Jun 14 2012 11:23 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast doug   Fri Jun 15 2012 11:53 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast weathernet   Mon Jun 18 2012 07:52 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast LoisCane   Mon Jun 18 2012 12:02 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast doug   Wed Jun 20 2012 08:59 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast weathernet   Wed Jun 20 2012 02:40 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast weathernet   Thu Jun 21 2012 03:40 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 09:01 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast doug   Thu Jun 21 2012 11:00 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 11:52 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast MichaelA   Thu Jun 21 2012 01:51 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 12:58 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast doug   Thu Jun 21 2012 01:41 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 02:17 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast LoisCane   Thu Jun 21 2012 02:43 PM
. * * RECON Tomorrow danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 02:48 PM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast NPR16   Thu Jun 21 2012 11:47 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 21 2012 08:18 AM
. * * Re: 10 day GFS Forecast doug   Wed Jun 20 2012 03:10 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 12214

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center