MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Ernesto now in Bay of Campeche & Impressively Restrengthening
Fri Aug 03 2012 02:28 PM
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1:00 AM EDT 9 August 2012:
Much of Erneso's internals actually organized more into landfall, and for the first several hours after landfall a distinct eye feature was still very noticeable in the enhanced infrared images.
Tropical cyclones that intensify into landfall and go on to cross a peninsula (such as Florida, or in this case, the Yucatan) often have a very good chance of pulling things back together rapidly once getting back out over the water. Such appears to be the case with Ernesto, with recon finding winds up at 5,000' of nearly 100 MPH, and peak surface winds of around 65 MPH, which has been set as the current advisory as of 11:00 PM EDT Aug. 8.
Ernesto has a window of about 12-30 hours, based on exact track and forward speed, to become a hurricane again. At present, this looks likely, and that is reflected in NHC's official forecast which is calling for a second Ernesto landfall as a hurricane, this time with the center coming ashore somewhere between Veracruz and Chilitepec, MX..
It is expected that Ernesto will drop widespread rainfall totals of 3"-9", with potentially much higher totals in some locations, over Tabasco, Veracruz, Puebla & northern Oaxaca through Friday, with even more heavy rain possible over the weekend. As a result, dangerous inland flooding will probably occur in parts of these states from today through Sunday.
Ciel
11:35 PM EDT 7 August 2012:
Hurricane Ernesto made landfall along the coast of the extreme southern Yucatan at about 10:00 PM CDT near Mahahual, MX., and is now crossing the peninsula.
Ciel
10:40 PM EDT 7 August 2012:
Strong Category 1 Hurricane Ernesto is likely within 15-45 minutes of making landfall along the southeastern Yucatan peninsula. Then if it follows the official forecast, Ernesto will likely initially remain a hurricane, and then a strong tropical storm, as it crosses the peninsula over the next 18-36 hours before exiting into the Bay of Campeche to briefly restrengthen before a final, second Mexican landfall, Thursday night.
Hurricane Ernesto will become the first landfalling hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Ciel
2:40 PM EDT 7 August 2012:
Ernesto has been upgraded to a hurricane. Maximum sustained winds found by recon are now roughly 80MPH, and the pressure has continued to drop, now 983mb.
Ciel
7:45 AM EDT 7 August 2012:
Ernesto has been fighting dry air for a while, and disrupted the intensification process and seems to we working through that now, it still has a chance to become a hurricane later today before landfall tomorrow morning near or just north of Belize in the Yucatan.
Ernesto has become a large tropical storm which will likely bring some storm surge to areas north of landfall with heavy rains, those in the area beware of a strengthening storm, and prepare for a hurricane at landfall..
In the east Atlantic 92L is being tracked as it moves west. It has a 20% chance for development in the next 2 days. This one is likely to stay on a westerly course for a while, and may be worth watching next week if it nears the islands.
The remnants of Florence only have a 10% shot to regenerate.
Belize radar recording (Alternate)
Webcam recording, Cozumel El Cid resorts. (Alternate)
9:15 AM EDT 6 August 2012:
Recon has found an eyewall, a fully circular one and 6 nautical miles wide in Ernesto this morning, after not finding much of anything yesterday. Based on this, I'd expect a special advisory fairly soon and Hurricane Watches and Warnings up for Honduras/Belize fairly soon.
This area of the Caribbean is known for rapid intensification of storms, and if Ernesto has the eyewall as stated by the recon vortex message, intensification is already underway and is probably a hurricane now. Those in the current Tropical Storm Warning areas and Belize should be preparing for a possibly strong hurricane approaching.
7:30 AM EDT 6 August 2012:
Ernesto has held overnight and continues to move due west, because of this new watches and warnings are up:
Honduras from the Nicaragua border west to Puntal Sal has a Tropical Storm Warning, as Ernesto may very well make landfall or past just to the north of there.
Hurricane Watches are up from Chetumal to Punta Gruesa in Mexico along the Yucatan since if Ernesto stays north of Honduras it has a last shot for intensification before landfall.
Tropical storm watches are up for the rest of Honduras and parts north of Punsal Gruesa in the Mexican Yucatan to Tulum.
As of 5AM Belize had no watches/warnings up, but that should change fairly soon.
Ernesto has about a 50/50 shot to briefly re-emerge over the Gulf in the very southern bay of Campeche, but trends suggest it may not make it that far.
Ernesto is clear of any South American land influence now and has a window to strengthen today.
11 PM EDT 5 August 2012:
Ernesto has not gained any strength today and has barely remained a Tropical Storm during the day, the general westerly motion has continued throughout the day, and only fairly recently has the forward motion slowed a bit. It appears Ernesto will likely cross near Honduras, over Belize and through Mexico, it may or may not briefly reenter the Bay of Campeche before then. If it manages to make it north of Honduras it has the chance to strengthen some before landfall.
Florence continues moving westward, fairly weak and likely will weaken a bit more, it appears as it will stay away from land areas.
91L was officially deactivated this morning and much of the rainfall never materialized over Florida.
8 AM EDT 5 August 2012:
Ernesto as a system is struggling at the mid levels again, and has started to move very quickly westward again (22mph westward motion). This speed has forced Tropical Storm warnings to be issued for the north coast of Honduras.
Ernesto itself can arguable called an open wave as recon just has not been able to find a large area of westerly winds at all.
With this observation from overnight, it appears the more westerly track has solidified and likely will affect Central America/Mexico in 2-3 days.
8 AM EDT 4 August 2012:
Tropical Depression Six has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Florence this morning, Florence is expected to move generally westward and encounter hostile development conditions that may force it back into an open wave in a few days.
Tropical Storm watches have been issued for Jamaica for Ernesto, which is forecast to move south of Jamaica, but may be close enough to cause Tropical Storm force winds on the Island. The forecast track was adjusted a bit southward, which may keep the storm moving generally westward all the way through the Caribbean. Latest recon reports still keep Ernesto a weak Tropical Storm currently mainly due to mid level dry air.
In the long run, those in the Yucatan of Mexico, Honduras, and Belize will want to watch Ernesto very closely.
91L has lost a lot of convection overnight, but likely will re-fire today, but it appears just to be a rain maker south and Central Florida and will not develop in the Atlantic.
11 PM EDT 3 August 2012:
90L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 6. Located 240 WSW of the Cape Verde Islands.
Previous Update:
Ernesto is now in the Eastern Caribbean, moving very rapidly westward, likely will continue on it's westward motion for a good while.
91L is now being track southeast of Florida. This was the wave mentioned early in the week, and now has a 20% chance for development over the next 48 hours as it brings enhanced rainfall to central and south Florida now through the weekend.
90L has a 50% chance for development in the far east Atlantic, odds favor this one staying out to sea.
In short, a busy weekend in the tropics.
{{EastFloridaRadar}}
{{StormCarib}}
url=http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animator.php?135]Belize radar recording[/url] ([http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?135]Alternate[/url])
{{StormLinks|Ernesto|05|5|2012|05|Ernesto}}
{{StormLinks|Florence|92|7|2012|92|92L}}
Edited by cieldumort (Thu Aug 09 2012 01:40 AM)
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