Here is the loop of GFS and it shows a more west track now at this 12z run just north of Puerto Rico than the past runs and this has been a flip-flop thing for it.But I saw Nogaps and puts the same system 100 miles south of Puerto Rico so there is not a consensus on the global models on the track is concerned.On intensity of it they are bullish about that.
Looking at the wave this evening there has been an increase of convection but a lack of organization and until it not consolidates more nothing will happen but as it moves more west it will have better chance to do so.Time will tell what this wave wll do but I am watching very closely from here.
-------------------- My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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