MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Isaac Still Trying to get Organized
Sun Aug 26 2012 05:10 PM
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6:00 AM EDT 27 August 2012 Update
Tropical Storm Isaac is now solidly in the Gulf of Mexico this morning, and the center has relocated closer to the central dense overcast., but the center still remains south of most of the weather. So strengthening for the next 12 hours or so would be slow, but there are signs that an actual eye (possibly tilted) is trying form, and Isaac's in the best position it's been since formation to strengthen this afternoon and evening.
The NOAA aircraft twitter states "Radar suggests an eye is forming in #Isaac.It is elliptical with major axis WNW-ESE and diameter 30 nm. In major bands to west."
But there are factors that will keep it from strengthening too quickly, such as the dry air and upper level low to the south of it, and the inability to keep the mid and low level centers aligned..
The eastern part of the storm is still moving through the Florida peninsula but should be out by the end of the day, this morning the heaviest bands are moving through central Florida, the bands train for a very long distance, so certain parts of Florida will likely see extended periods of rain, some of which could be rough or spawn tornadoes.
Those in the northern Gulf coast warning area should take preparations today. The storm moved more north than forecast last night (because of re-locations) and the forecast track briefly moved a bit east. Still because of center relocation, the exact track is in question.
New Tropical storm warnings are now up form Intracoastal City, AL to Morgan City, LA and new hurricane watches are up as well for the same area. the hurricane warning remains up east of there to Destin, FL.
2:00 AM EDT 27 August 2012 Update
Recon appears to be finding that Isaac is attempting to recenter itself much closer to its mid-level center, which had been impressive on radar all day Sunday. Tonight this center is nestled within explosive, deep convection, and it would seem that this MLC has probably drilled down to the surface, and if so, will try to leave the old low-level center to float and sputter in its wake.
We will be keeping an eye on this development closely, and should have a better handle on what the outcome of these, yet again competing centers, is by daybreak.
Ciel
Recon found that Isaac's strength has not changed much today, and the center passed just south of Key West.
The Hurricane Warning for the Keys, Dry Tortugas, Florida West coast and Florida Bay was changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.
And the tropical storm watch north of Sebastian cancelled.
However, the hurricane watch for a good portion of the gulf, is now a hurricane warning. This stretches from Morgan City, LA eastward to Destin, Fl and includes New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. This is a very large area to be under a hurricane warning, and it's basically because of the great deal of uncertainty in with the track (larger than the cone), because of the model spread.
Timing for landfall would be early morning on Wednesday based on the official track.
Those in the hurricane warning area need to be preparing now and watching the progress of the storm closely.
Please listen to local officials and media for recommendation for your area.
Early reports from the Keys indicate it wasn't too bad, thankfully Isaac did not strengthen rapidly today.
Let everyone know about Isaac related conditions in your area
Discussion on Isaac has been lively in the Forecast Lounge .
Special Storm Related Links
Florida Power & Light Power Outage Map
Progress Energy Power Outage Map
Florida Road Conditions
Florida Emergency Management (Floridadisaster.org)
Florida Keys/Monroe County, FL Emergency Information
Long Term RBTOP Satellite Float of Isaac (2012) -- Alternate style
Full Florida Radar Recording of Isaac Approach - Alternate animation
Noaa Hurricane Research Division Flight twitter
Flowing Wind Map
One minute Satellite Imagery of Isaac (Special GOES-14)
Storm Surge Probabilities for Isaac
Webcams and Streaming Video
Follow-along map/video of HurricaneTrack's Mark Sudduth (Joined by Mike Watkins later). GPS map, Radar, sat, and streaming video Please see hurricanetrack.com.
Mark and Mike are in Mississippi.
Jim Williams from Hurricane City is taking to the road for Isaac
]"Cyclone Oz" from Crazymother and his brother are also crazy and following Isaac with two vehicles .
Note: Webcams tend to get overloaded and die during events like these, if power outages don't get to them first.
Ocean Key Resort Live Stream cams (3 on one page)
Florida Keys Webcams
Beach Cam Key West (Controllable) South Street Key West Cam (Controllable)
Duval Street Key West streaming cam (w/ Audio)
Bahia Honda Key Cam Recording (Alt)
Florida Keys traffic cameras
Southernmost House Key West Cam RecordingAlt)
{{LAInfo}}
{{EastFloridaRadar}}
{{NortheastGulfRadar}}
{{NorthGulfRadar}}
{{StormLinks|Isaac|09|9|2012|09|Issac}}
{{StormLinks|97L|97|10|2012|97|97L}} WWL AM 870 in New Orleans streaming. Storm information online
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