MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Very Large & Dangerous Isaac Going Nowhere Fast
Tue Aug 28 2012 08:47 AM
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5:00 AM EDT 29 August 2012 Update
Isaac made a second technical landfall early this morning, but on the whole is hardly moving. Pressure is remarkably low for a Category 1, at 969mb, and maximum sustained winds are holding at 80 MPH.
Lots of wind with Isaac. Inland storm reports so far include numerous downed trees, severe roof damage, etc., but focus really turns to the potential for substantial flooding.
Louisiana Homeland Security has confirmed that a levee in Plaquemines Parish has overtopped. While overtopping is not the same as a breach, significant, deep flooding in that area is possible, and emergency evacuations are underway in its immediate vicinity despite very rough weather. Sometimes an overtopping results in a complete breach.
The overtopping is occurring from the St. Bernard line all the way to White Ditch, about an 18 mile stretch, according to initial reports.
Many more hours of wind, rain and surge to go. Southeast Louisiana may not yet be even half way through.
Ciel
2:00 AM EDT 29 August 2012 Update
On this anniversary date of the infamous second landfall of Hurricane Katrina, 2012's Hurricane Isaac is packing a punch of its own on southeastern Louisiana, causing more than a few unpleasant flashbacks.
Fortunately, Isaac is no Katrina. That is the good news. The bad news: in many ways it is a lot more like 2008's Hurricane Ike. The ugly: Isaac has basically pulled up stationary just offshore, and even when it does start to move again, it is expected to do so painfully slowly.
Weather stations throughout New Orleans are currently reporting sustained winds of up to over 50 MPH, gusting over 70, but the real concern, much as it was not so many years ago, is the water. Despite substantial upgrades and reinforcements, there is understandable concern among residents as to whether or not man has sufficiently outwitted mother nature. With the power out for hundreds of thousands, getting timely, accurate updates is problematic.
A long, long night for many.
Ciel
8:30 PM EDT 28 August 2012 Update
Hurricane Isaac is actually still intensifying as it heads for a second landfall expected to happen later tonight, now down to a very low 968mb per the latest Recon Vortex Message.
Isaac is a very dangerous hurricane. Surge is piling up, and locations especially in its northeast quadrant are forecast to see surge of up to 12 feet, possibly locally higher. In addition, surface wind gusts over 60 MPH are becoming commonplace, and widespread rainfall totals of 8" to 20" will lead to life-threatening inland flooding.
Ciel
7:10 PM EDT 28 August 2012 Update
Isaac has made a first, of what will probably be at least two landfalls, in extreme southeastern Louisiana - Plaquemines Parish - at 6:45PM CDT.
Hurricane Isaac continues deepening into landfall, and may yet become even stronger by the time it makes a likely second landfall later this evening, or overnight tonight.
Potentially deadly storm surge and inland flooding are already occurring, and are forecast to continue to do so far at least another 12-24 hours.
Ciel
12:20 PM EDT 28 August 2012 Update
Just an update to note that Isaac has finally become a definitive hurricane.
Hurricane Isaac is a very large tropical cyclone, with a sphere of influence nearly 900 miles wide. In addition to Isaac's girth, the hurricane is boasting unusually low pressures for a barely Cat 1. This is because of its very large size, combined with repeated challenges to it from shear, dry air, and competing, multiple centers.
It is important not to let the "minimal" category fool anyone into a sense of security. Isaac is very similar to Hurricane Ike (2008), also a very large tropical cyclone that boasted exceptionally low barometric pressures for its given moniker at any given time; ie, tropical storm, cat 1, cat 2, etc.
As with Ike, Isaac's intensification is going to be experienced in winds that are strong to very strong over a much wider area than typical in a hurricane; as such, storm surge will potentially be much more of an issue than might be expected in "just" a Cat 1.
In addition to likely widespread minor to moderately severe storm surge, inland flooding will probably become a serious, life-threatening event, owing to Isaac's size and slowing forward speed (including a possible stall just offshore, or just inland over Louisiana).
Tornadoes are frequently a concern with landfalling tropical cyclones, and this is no exception with Hurricane Isaac. SPC does have a Tornado Watch up covering much of the northern Gulf coast, including southeast Louisiana, southwest Alabama, far southeast Mississippi, and the western Florida panhandle, and they will likely issue several more over the next few days related to Isaac, as warranted.
Measures to save life and property within and near Isaac's forecast path should now be rushed to completion.
Ciel
Tropical Storm Isaac is still just under hurricane status tonight as it slowly starts to move to the northwest toward the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama.
Isaac has a flat appearance on satellite, with most of the convection to the south at the moment, as it wraps around the center, it likely will affect areas east of the landfall point the most. Which would imply Mississippi and Alabama to get some of the worst.
So far, only some small parts of the outer rain bands have reached the Gulf, with the bulk of the storm still a ways south of there. But as the day rolls on, more and more will come, but the system appears nearly sliced in half with the majority of the convection to the south.
This slow motion will likely cause extended periods of surge and rain. Some models have it at or just over the coast for a few days, which would make Isaac's flooding potential be it's legacy.
Dry air and a lack of a solid core have plagued Isaac it's entire run, and that has kept it weaker. Still the large windfield of the storm, and it's continual push to strengthen mean it still is quite dangerous. It will be nowhere close to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, but it will be enough to cause storm surge flooding i areas, and flooding rains, and a few people may still get surprised by the system..
Beyond Isaac, 97L has a good shot at becoming a depression, but will likely stay out to sea, And another wave (no invest number yet) in the east Atlantic may form later in the week, and may track further westward.
Late rain bands yesterday caused flooding unseen in south Florida and just along the east coast in years, as the band trained over the same area for hours.
Let everyone know about Isaac related conditions in your area
Special Storm Related Links
Long Term RBTOP Satellite Float of Isaac (2012) -- Alternate style
Full Florida Radar Recording of Isaac Approach - Alternate animation
Noaa Hurricane Research Division Flight twitter
Flowing Wind Map
Power Outage Map for Louisiana
One minute Satellite Imagery of Isaac (Special GOES-14)
Storm Surge Probabilities for Isaac
Webcams and Streaming Video
Erato Street Terminal Cam Flhurricane Recording - New Orleans ( Alternate )
Gulf Shores, AL Webcam / Flhurricane Recording ( <a href="url=http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?144" target="_blank">Alternate</a> )
Bourbon St Cam
Follow-along map/video of HurricaneTrack's Mark Sudduth (Joined by Mike Watkins later). GPS map, Radar, sat, and streaming video Please see hurricanetrack.com.
Mark and Mike are in Mississippi.
Jim Williams from Hurricane City is taking to the road for Isaac
]"Cyclone Oz" from Crazymother and his brother are also crazy and following Isaac with two vehicles also <a href="Crazymother " target="_blank">Crazymother video</a>
Note: Webcams tend to get overloaded and die during events like these, if power outages don't get to them first.
Florida Keys traffic cameras
Southernmost House Key West Cam RecordingAlt)
{{LAInfo}}
WWL AM 870 in New Orleans streaming. Storm information online
{{NortheastGulfRadar}}
{{NorthGulfRadar}}
{{StormLinks|Invest 99L|13|13|2012|99|Invest 99L}}
{{StormLinks|Kirk|11|11|2012|11|TS Kirk}}
{{StormLinks|Leslie|12|12|2012|12|TS Leslie}}
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 02 2012 05:08 PM)
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