A tropical wave nestled within a very large area of lower sea level pressure is tracking west through the Caribbean this weekend, and is in an area increasingly favorable environment for development. This feature has been tagged as Invest 99L, and NHC now gives it a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.
Invest 99L has an excellent blueprint for development, and this system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone that undergoes rapid intensification, which could take many by surprise heading into the new week.
In the lower levels, the circulation is already pretty well defined, with the blueprint for future spiral banding solidly in place. In the upper levels, winds are very light, and increasingly anticyclonic. Throughout the column, the air is moist, and relatively free of the dry air intrusions which have plagued so many other tropical features this season.
As of 3:00 AM Sunday October 21, 99L was centered near 15N 75W, with maximum sustained winds estimated at around 30 MPH.
This is where to put long range best guesses on intensity and forecast track. Long range model output discussions are also appropriate here.
At present, models are basically unanimous in developing Invest 99L within the next three days, but are very split with regard to its future track.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 35472
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center