The 22/12Z ECMWF takes a strong storm (subtropical?) into the northeast whereas the 22/18Z GFS keeps the system well out at sea. In both cases its in the far extended range of 7 to 10 days. So far this year the GFS has been the better performing model, but for now its probably more important to concentrate on the more immediate track of the next few days - especially with regard to Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. Wind and flooding impacts will be important in those areas as well as the southeast U.S. coastline (high seas, strong rip currents and possibly beach erosion). Looks like the latest forecast track has slowed the forward motion down a bit and that could allow for a stronger storm to develop. ED
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