Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Nothing currently in the Atlantic Basin, for Late October the West Caribbean is usually where to monitor.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Nate) , Major: 30 (Maria) Florida - Any: 40 (Irma) Major: 40 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge
      Sat Oct 27 2012 12:45 AM

506
FXUS02 KWBC 261827
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 02 2012

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD HIGH WINDS/HEAVY RAINS AND INTERIOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE
CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...

GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
====================
A RETROGRADING POSITIVE ANOMALY MOVING FROM SOUTHERN GREENLAND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FAVORS A QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP CYCLONE NEAR
THE NORTHEAST, IN THIS CASE HURRICANE SANDY AND ITS POST-TROPICAL
REMAINS. OTHERWISE...RIDGING IS GENERAL EXPECTED OUT
WEST...THOUGH FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SEND AMPLE
ENERGY/HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN, THOUGH ISSUES
REMAIN WITH SANDY'S FUTURE COURSE AND STRENGTH.

MODEL PREFERENCE
================
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TRACK NOW BEST RESEMBLES THE
00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY
MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN BASED UPON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...A
PROCESS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TUESDAY PER NHC. THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE 00 UTC ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS
WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW
YORK COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE)
EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
(CANADIAN, GFS, AND ECMWF INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A VERY STRONG BIAS
WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES GAINING LATITUDE AND/OR TRANSITIONING INTO
NON-TROPICAL STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS... INCLUDING (BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVE TO) LESLIE 2012...ISAAC 2012...DEBBY 2012 IN THE
WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IRENE 2011 AND IGOR 2010. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NHC FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON SANDY.

THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO DEPICTS AN OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC THAT
IS ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE FULL
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS SEEMS
QUITE REASONABLE CONSIDERING DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING.

WEATHER IMPACTS
===============
PER THIS SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AS HIGH AS
HURRICANE-FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO LASH EXPOSED AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES (THE COAST AND TOPOGRAPHY)...LEADING
TO POTENTIALLY SERIOUS COASTAL EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE
TIMING OF THE FULL MOON AND THE BUILD-UP OF TIDES OVER MULTIPLE
TIDAL CYCLES SHOULD EXACERBATE THE SITUATION ALONG THE
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN CORNERS SUCH AS THE NEW YORK BIGHT. HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS WITHIN SANDY'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CIRCULATION AS WELL AS ALONG ITS DRAPING WARM FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENG AND ERN
CANADA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD MEANWHILE ALLOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WITHIN ITS COMMA
HEAD PATTERN UNDER THE SUPPORTING/COOLING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO FALL AS CENTERED/FOCUSING OVER THE CENTRAL THEN NRN
APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE SYSTEM'S COLD SECTOR. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AS IT PULLS NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD
SLACKEN AS SHOULD NERN US PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/COVERAGE...BUT
EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING TROPICAL
ORIGIN OF THE LOW.

UPSTREAM...A SOLUTION CLOSEST TO THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
SLOWS FROM HPC CONTINUITY SLIGHTLY THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF ERN
PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGY ACROSS THE WRN US MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...MORE
SLUGGISH TO BUMP INTO A LEAD AMBIENT MEAN MID-UPPER RIDGE
POSITION. THIS SOLUTION OFFERS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPIATION/MOUNTAIN SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NWRN US NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR MEDIUM RANGE DAYS 4-7 LIQUID
AMOUNTS UPWARDS TO 5 INCHES OVER MOST FAVORED PAC NW COASTAL
TERRAIN AND THE CASCADES...WITH DECREASING BUT STILL WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS SPREADING FURTHER INLAND.

ROTH/SCHICHTEL
$$

bold emphasis added~danielw

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Sandy Forecast Lounge cieldumort Sat Oct 27 2012 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge jkapust   Wed Oct 24 2012 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge berrywr   Thu Oct 25 2012 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge berrywr   Thu Oct 25 2012 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Thu Oct 25 2012 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Fri Oct 26 2012 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Fri Oct 26 2012 06:32 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Oct 26 2012 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge berrywr   Fri Oct 26 2012 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Wed Oct 24 2012 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Troy C   Wed Oct 24 2012 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Oct 22 2012 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Mon Oct 22 2012 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 23 2012 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 23 2012 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 23 2012 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 23 2012 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 23 2012 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Wed Oct 24 2012 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Wed Oct 24 2012 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Wed Oct 24 2012 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Wed Oct 24 2012 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 26 2012 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge HobbyistinNH   Fri Oct 26 2012 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Oct 26 2012 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge HobbyistinNH   Fri Oct 26 2012 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Oct 26 2012 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 27 2012 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Sat Oct 27 2012 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge HobbyistinNH   Sat Oct 27 2012 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 27 2012 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 12:23 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 01:29 AM
. * * Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? berrywr   Sun Oct 28 2012 03:46 AM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? Random Chaos   Sun Oct 28 2012 09:38 AM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 03:59 AM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? cieldumort   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? MichaelA   Sun Oct 28 2012 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? Random Chaos   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? Random Chaos   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:46 PM
. * * Sandy: Subtropical Hurricane cieldumort   Mon Oct 29 2012 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Sandy: Subtropical Hurricane HobbyistinNH   Mon Oct 29 2012 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Sandy: Subtropical Hurricane ftlaudbob   Mon Oct 29 2012 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Oct 24 2012 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Wed Oct 24 2012 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Thu Oct 25 2012 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Thu Oct 25 2012 02:09 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Thu Oct 25 2012 03:04 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Thu Oct 25 2012 03:47 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 25 2012 07:05 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Thu Oct 25 2012 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 25 2012 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 25 2012 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Thu Oct 25 2012 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Thu Oct 25 2012 09:33 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 23 2012 03:33 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Owlguin   Tue Oct 23 2012 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge doug   Tue Oct 23 2012 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge doug   Tue Oct 23 2012 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Tue Oct 23 2012 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge bobbutts   Mon Oct 22 2012 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Oct 22 2012 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Oct 22 2012 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Mon Oct 22 2012 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Brewing Up Two More Invests ftlaudbob   Sun Oct 21 2012 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 21 2012 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Oct 21 2012 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sun Oct 21 2012 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge doug   Sun Oct 21 2012 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Sun Oct 21 2012 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Oct 22 2012 11:22 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 32200

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center