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Archives 2010s >> 2012 News Talkbacks

Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US
      Sat Oct 27 2012 11:32 AM

HPC Extended Range Discussion - bold emphasis added:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
923 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

VALID 12Z WED OCT 31 2012 - 12Z SAT NOV 03 2012

...BY THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME FRAME DANGEROUS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
SANDY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD HIGH WINDS/HEAVY RAINS AND
INTERIOR/ELEVATED HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...

GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
====================
A REX BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ITS SOUTHWESTERN MEMBER IS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST...THE POST-TROPICAL PORTION OF SANDY.
OTHERWISE...RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA DOWNSTREAM OF A
DEEP CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC OCEAN SHOULD ALLOW A
CLOSED CYCLONE TO MOVE UNDER ITS BASE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES. GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN...WITH SANDY'S COURSE AND STRENGTH
REMAINING THE MAIN WILD CARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

MODEL PREFERENCE
================
THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY IS WELL UNDERWAY...A PROCESS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TUESDAY PER THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
(NHC). THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS WEAKENED SANDY DURING THE
SHORT RANGE PERIOD TOWARDS THE THOUGHTS FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY...MAKING THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE MUCH MORE USABLE WITH
ITS DEPTH. SINCE THE GUIDANCE AGREED IN PRINCIPLE...USED A
40/30/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
THEREAFTER...ADJUSTING SANDY'S POSITION TO THE MOST RECENT
THOUGHTS FROM NHC (WHICH RESEMBLED THE BLEND).

UPSTREAM...LIKE YESTERDAY STILL PREFER A SOLUTION ON THE MORE
AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE FULL ENVELOP OF SOLUTIONS WITH ENERGY
CROSSING THE WRN US CONSIDERING AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY LEAD FLOW. A
BLEND OF DETERMINITSIC MODEL RUNS IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET OFFERS A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THAN
CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEANS.

WEATHER IMPACTS
===============
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LASH EXPOSED
AREAS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES (THE COAST AND TOPOGRAPHY) AS
WELL AS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND... LEADING TO POTENTIALLY SERIOUS
COASTAL EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING.
THE STORM SURGE WHICH BUILT
UP DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD DUE TO THE BUILD-UP OF TIDES OVER
MULTIPLE TIDAL CYCLES...PARTICULARLY IN CORNERS SUCH AS THE NEW
YORK BIGHT
...SHOULD BE BEGIN TO RECEDE WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO FOCUS WITHIN SANDY'S LEAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CIRCULATION AS WELL AS ALONG ITS DRAPING WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEANWHILE ALLOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON
ITS BACKSIDE WITHIN ITS COMMA HEAD PATTERN UNDER THE
SUPPORTING/COOLING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL THEN NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY.
LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SYSTEM'S COLD SECTOR. AS THE
CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT PULLS NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/COVERAGE...BUT EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING THE TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THE LOW.

ACROSS THE WEST...THIS SOLUTION OFFERS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION/MOUNTAIN SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS PERIOD...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS UPWARDS TO
5 INCHES OVER FAVORED COASTAL TERRAIN AND THE CASCADES...WITH
DECREASING BUT STILL WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS SPREADING FURTHER INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. UPSLOPE RAINS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING THURSDAY THROUGH LATER IN
THE WEEK AS WRN US SYSTEM ENERGIES EMERGE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

ROTH/SCHICHTEL

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US MikeCAdministrator Sat Oct 27 2012 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Random Chaos   Sat Nov 03 2012 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US danielwAdministrator   Thu Nov 01 2012 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US danielwAdministrator   Thu Nov 01 2012 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Random Chaos   Wed Oct 31 2012 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US doug   Wed Oct 31 2012 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Oct 30 2012 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Joeyfl   Tue Oct 30 2012 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US srquirrely   Tue Oct 30 2012 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US HobbyistinNH   Tue Oct 30 2012 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US doug   Tue Oct 30 2012 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Random Chaos   Tue Oct 30 2012 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US doug   Tue Oct 30 2012 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Random Chaos   Mon Oct 29 2012 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Oct 29 2012 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Dougyd   Mon Oct 29 2012 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Random Chaos   Mon Oct 29 2012 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US jkapust   Mon Oct 29 2012 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 29 2012 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US HobbyistinNH   Mon Oct 29 2012 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Oct 29 2012 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Random Chaos   Mon Oct 29 2012 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 29 2012 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Random Chaos   Mon Oct 29 2012 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 29 2012 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 29 2012 08:29 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 29 2012 07:49 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Random Chaos   Mon Oct 29 2012 05:03 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US cieldumort   Mon Oct 29 2012 02:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Random Chaos   Sun Oct 28 2012 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Random Chaos   Sun Oct 28 2012 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 09:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US HobbyistinNH   Sat Oct 27 2012 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US MikeCAdministrator   Sat Oct 27 2012 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US MikeCAdministrator   Sat Oct 27 2012 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US MikeCAdministrator   Sat Oct 27 2012 11:04 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Sandy and the Northeastern US Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 10:11 AM

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