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Archives >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge
      Sun Oct 28 2012 01:20 AM

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
441 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

VALID 00Z SUN OCT 28 2012 - 00Z WED OCT 31 2012(edited~danielw)

DAYS 2 AND 3...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

THE FCST IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH THE TRACK OF SANDY AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH THE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE
MID-ATL REGION AND WRAPPING AROUND THE INTENSE CYCLONE.
THE MODELS ALL SHOW ENOUGH ANOMALOUS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS WITH
STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING TAKING PLACE FOR TEMPERATURES TO BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR HVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN
APPALACHIANS LATE SUN INTO TUE. THE INITIAL SNOWS LATE SUN INTO
MON MORNING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TERRAIN NEAR THE NC/TN BORDER
INTO AREAS NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER. THIS IS WHERE THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE MAX COLD ADVECTION AND WHERE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING. NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND PRODUCES SNOW IN TERRAIN
FACING THE FLOW. AS SUN NIGHT PROGRESSES THE AREA OF COLDER TEMPS
EXPENDS NORTH ACROSS WV AND RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. AS A
RESULT...THE PROBABILITY UNCERTAINTIES REVOLVE AROUND THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND DURATION OF SNOW. ON MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT... TREMENDOUS NWRLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INUNDATE THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR HVY WET SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WV/EASTERN KY/WESTERN VA AND NEAR THE NC/TN BORDER.

SIGNIFICANT APPALACHIANS SNOWFALL IS LIKELY BUT A WIDE VARIABILITY
PERSISTS ON ACCUMULATIONS AMONG THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE HIGHER
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN MAY DEVELOP TUE AS
HEIGHTS/TEMPS GRADUALLY FALL. THE 12Z NAM HAD THE COLDEST TEMPS
OFF ALL SOLUTIONS AND WAS DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF THE 09Z SREF
MEAN/12Z GEFS MEAN/00-12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS/12Z GEFS MEAN.
THIS MAJORITY CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS WAS USED FOR QPF/TEMPERATURE
PROFILES TO DERIVE SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

PETERSEN

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Sandy Forecast Lounge cieldumort Sun Oct 28 2012 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge jkapust   Wed Oct 24 2012 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge berrywr   Thu Oct 25 2012 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge berrywr   Thu Oct 25 2012 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Thu Oct 25 2012 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Fri Oct 26 2012 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Fri Oct 26 2012 06:32 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Oct 26 2012 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge berrywr   Fri Oct 26 2012 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Wed Oct 24 2012 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Troy C   Wed Oct 24 2012 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Oct 22 2012 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Mon Oct 22 2012 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 23 2012 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 23 2012 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 23 2012 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 23 2012 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 23 2012 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Wed Oct 24 2012 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Wed Oct 24 2012 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Wed Oct 24 2012 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Wed Oct 24 2012 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Oct 26 2012 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge HobbyistinNH   Fri Oct 26 2012 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Oct 26 2012 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge HobbyistinNH   Fri Oct 26 2012 10:45 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Oct 26 2012 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 27 2012 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge mcgowanmc   Sat Oct 27 2012 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge HobbyistinNH   Sat Oct 27 2012 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 27 2012 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Sat Oct 27 2012 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 12:23 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 01:29 AM
. * * Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? berrywr   Sun Oct 28 2012 03:46 AM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? Random Chaos   Sun Oct 28 2012 09:38 AM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 03:59 AM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? cieldumort   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 28 2012 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? MichaelA   Sun Oct 28 2012 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? Random Chaos   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? HobbyistinNH   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Dodge MA and NH? Random Chaos   Sun Oct 28 2012 11:46 PM
. * * Sandy: Subtropical Hurricane cieldumort   Mon Oct 29 2012 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Sandy: Subtropical Hurricane HobbyistinNH   Mon Oct 29 2012 10:27 PM
. * * Re: Sandy: Subtropical Hurricane ftlaudbob   Mon Oct 29 2012 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Oct 24 2012 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Wed Oct 24 2012 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Thu Oct 25 2012 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Thu Oct 25 2012 02:09 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Thu Oct 25 2012 03:04 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Thu Oct 25 2012 03:47 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 25 2012 07:05 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Thu Oct 25 2012 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 25 2012 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 25 2012 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Thu Oct 25 2012 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Thu Oct 25 2012 09:33 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 23 2012 03:33 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Owlguin   Tue Oct 23 2012 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge doug   Tue Oct 23 2012 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge doug   Tue Oct 23 2012 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Tue Oct 23 2012 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge bobbutts   Mon Oct 22 2012 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Oct 22 2012 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Mon Oct 22 2012 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Mon Oct 22 2012 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Brewing Up Two More Invests ftlaudbob   Sun Oct 21 2012 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 21 2012 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sun Oct 21 2012 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sun Oct 21 2012 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge doug   Sun Oct 21 2012 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Sun Oct 21 2012 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Invest 99L Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Mon Oct 22 2012 11:22 AM

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