Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Outlook for 2013
Tue Jan 01 2013 01:00 AM
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Its time once again to start the annual guesstimate of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin - and this year its no easy task. The Atlantic has recorded 19 named storms in each of the past three seasons which is an uncommonly high level of tropical cyclone activity. Some indicators, like the expected above normal SSTs in the Atlantic Basin during the upcoming hurricane season, suggest yet another busy season, however other indicators, like climatology after a series of busy seasons and neutral ENSO expectations in the Pacific 3.4 region, would support a more normal level of activity. TSR issued its initial outlook for the basin on December 5th, 2012 with a forecast for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, i.e., another rather busy season. Note that there has never been 4 seasons in a row with a high level of activity, but that doesn't mean that it can't happen.
Its been difficult to find a good analog year for the upcoming season and 2001 (15/9/4) is the only one that I can find that vaguely fits the anticipated ENSO SST pattern. The year with the best fit for the expected Atlantic temperature pattern is 2006 (9/4/2), so there is quite a large variation between the two analogs. I'll start with an above average seasonal forecast of 13/7/3 and perhaps by early April the murky crystal ball will clear up a little.
You can start posting your own numbers for the upcoming season - and you can revise your forecast as often as you wish until this thread gets closed on June 1st. Remember to post precise numbers rather than a range of numbers. Rationale for your forecast is strictly optional, i.e., its not required. We'll check back and see how we did at the end of the season.
Cheers,
ED
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Outlook for 2013
