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Archives 2010s >> 2013 Storm Forum

cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Outlook for 2013
      Mon May 27 2013 02:27 PM Attachment (213 downloads)

Another interesting season up ahead. With an expected neutral ENSO and a continuation of the positive MDO the safe bet, the one that requires as little thinking as possible, is for an above-average season as far as total numbers of named storms/hurricanes/majors are concerned.

Unfortunately, hurricane seasons rarely follow formulas to the letter. Even in seasons that "ought" to be one way or another, a number of other variables, or an unexpected shift in one of the main variables, say, an unexpected El Nino, can absolutely torque a seasonal forecaster's best efforts.

My best guess for this season now stands at 17 Storms, 10 Hurricanes, 4 Majors, and I expect that the range this year is really, to be candid, more or less 10-22 Names, 7-12 Hurricanes and 2-6 Majors.

Needless to say, I view 2013 as a lower-confidence year for the seasonal forecasters, despite that fact that so many are in phenomenally good agreement right now.

Let's take a look at the seasonal forecasts that have been released so far (and the only ones I think are really worth "counting" if one is going to try to compare expert seasonal forecasts against climatology, because by the time Aug/Sept rolls around, most folks really don't need a tropical weather 'expert' to tell them which way the season's winds are blowing).



Sample of Professional Seasonal Forecasts Released Prior to June 2013 for Upcoming Atlantic Season

   Agency                                                                                                      Tot. Storms                        Tot.Hurricanes             Majors
Colorado State 18 9 4
WSI (TWC) 16 9 5
TSR 15.3 7.5 3.4
UKMET 14 9 N/A
Accuweather 16 8 4
Cuban INSMET 17 9 N/A
Weatherbell 16 12 5
NOAA 16.5 9 4.5

HTML Tables



So yes, it is plainly obvious from above that the bulk of the professional seasonal forecasters in 2013 are in a range of about 16 Names, 9 Hurricanes & 4 Majors. Another very, very active year, if verified.

But before even commenting on strikes vs. formation, how about a look at how pre-June seasonal forecasts actually hold up against reality, and just so nobody can accuse me of cherry-picking, I am simply going to use the past three seasons from what are generally regarded by many as three of the very top seasonal forecasting agencies.

      Year                      Agency                               Forecast (N/H/M)                                   Actual (N/H/M)                                 Miss
2012 NOAA 12/6/2 19/10/2 -11
2012 CSU 10/4/2 19/10/2 -15
2012 TSR 13/6/3 19/10/2 -11
2011 NOAA 15/8/4.5 19/7/4 -5.5
2011 CSU 16/9/5 19/7/4 -6
2011 TSR 13/7.5/3.5 19/7/4 -7
2010 NOAA 18.5/11/5 19/12/5 -1.5
2010 CSU 15/8/4 19/12/5 -9
2010 TSR 16/8/4 19/12/5 -8

HTML Tables



If the past three years are any indication (and they are), three different agencies covering three different seasons, thus totalling nine seasonal forecasts, only provided one out of the nine that was basically accurate (NOAA 2010). Two out of the nine were in the ballpark (NOAA 2011 & CSU 2011), leaving six out of nine, fully two-thirds, as varying degrees of bust.

In the end, it doesn't really matter to any individual in any given year how many total named storms/hurricanes/majors there are. What matters most in any given year is where they go, and maybe to a lesser degree, when they go there.

I've added a best-guess strike map for this year to my own seasonal best guesses, and it is available for view by clicking on the attachments tab up at the top. For what it's worth, I believe 2013 will have an above average to much above average threat of U.S. landfalls. This is due in part to the overall numbers of tropical cyclones produced, and the most probable steering currents throughout the season.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon May 27 2013 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri May 31 2013 08:34 PM
. * * Outlook for 2013 - Final Results Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 25 2013 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 vpbob21   Fri May 31 2013 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Doombot!   Fri May 31 2013 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 IMTechspec   Thu May 30 2013 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Lamar-Plant City   Thu May 30 2013 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Bloodstar   Fri May 31 2013 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Lamar-Plant City   Fri May 31 2013 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 DMFischer   Thu May 30 2013 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 cieldumort   Mon May 27 2013 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 cieldumort   Tue May 28 2013 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun May 26 2013 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 JimB   Sun May 26 2013 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Joeyfl   Sun May 26 2013 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 ftlaudbob   Mon May 27 2013 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 SchexStorm   Mon May 27 2013 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 gsand   Sun May 12 2013 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Wingman51   Mon May 13 2013 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 weatherhead   Mon May 13 2013 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 CarolinaGurl   Tue May 21 2013 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 stormtiger   Tue May 21 2013 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Kigeliakitten   Sat May 11 2013 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 beachcrafts   Thu May 02 2013 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 rmbjoe1954   Wed Mar 20 2013 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Mar 08 2013 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Apr 05 2013 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri May 03 2013 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 GlenJohnson   Sat May 04 2013 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Hurricane29   Sat May 11 2013 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 MikeCAdministrator   Tue May 28 2013 07:52 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Fletch   Tue May 28 2013 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 dolfinatic   Tue May 28 2013 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Storm Hunter   Tue May 28 2013 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 eulogia   Wed May 29 2013 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Apr 10 2013 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 rmbjoe1954   Wed Apr 10 2013 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Apr 10 2013 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 doug   Wed May 01 2013 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 MichaelA   Wed May 01 2013 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 JoshuaK   Sat Apr 27 2013 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 B.C.Francis   Mon Mar 11 2013 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Mar 12 2013 07:51 AM

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