MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Storm Chantal Forms in Central Atlantic
Sat Jul 06 2013 08:03 AM
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11PM EDT 7 July 2013 Update
Tropical Storm Chantal has formed in the Central Atlantic, approaching the lesser Antilles, and forecast to near Hispaniola and Cuba later in the forecast period. It is unusual for storms to form this far east in early July.
Barbados and Dominica are under a tropical storm warning, and St. Vincent is under a tropical storm watch.
Beyond that, it is lounge territory, but it has a lot of shear and dry air to deal with in the Caribbean, especially toward Hispaniola. If the system survives the eastern Caribbean run, and makes it intact over the mid islands, then conditions may be better north of the islands. Those in the Southeast, Florida to NC/VA, may want to make sure you have supplies, however, even if this system does not stay together.
There are other waves that may come up later this week or next as well.
Barbados Radar Chantal Approach Recording (Alt Style)
2PM EDT 7 July 2013 Update
Development chances are up to 60% for the wave in the central Atlantic this afternoon, those in the lesser Antilles islands in the Caribbean may want to pay close attention to the system, since if it develops, it would likely involve watches/warnings in that area.
Recon may start tomorrow.
The system still has a lot of hostile weather in front of it as it gets closer to the Caribbean, which will likely keep it weak.
{{StormCarib}}
8AM EDT 7 July 2013 Update
The system in the Gulf did not develop, but the system in the Central Atlantic (95L) continues to persist in a moderate shear and SAL environment. It appears this system may continue to move generally westward and possibly enter the Caribbean Tuesday or Wednesday, likely still weak. The system will be worth watching during the week, as it currently has a 40% chance for development.
Original Update
For July 6th, there are two areas in the Atlantic currently being watched, but no active storms. There is an area in the western Gulf of Mexico, 94L, which will likely bring some rain to coastal (but not interior) Texas and Mexico, but really has a lot of shear to fight to even develop. 20% chance for development there, and it probably will not.
95L just got assigned to the wave in the Central Atlantic, and this wave currently has a 20% chance for development, and likely will have to be watched in the coming days by those in the Northeastern Caribbean Tuesday or Wednesday. Global models haven't really picked this one up yet, so it may take a while to develop, if at all. Of the two systems, this is the more likely of the two to develop in the long term
Currently the dry air around 95L (SAL) will keep it from developing in the short term, but if the system persists through this, it has a better chance of development later. Discuss what you think may happen with this system in the lounge. Shear will also likely keep this weaker.
{{StormLinks|Chantal|03|3|2013|03|Chantal}}
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