MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Erin Forms, West Caribbean Wave Struggles
Tue Aug 13 2013 09:16 PM
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Update 8:00AM EDT 15 Aug 2013
Tropical Storm Erin formed from TD#5 in the far east Atlantic, of the options talked about in the earlier one, it's leaning toward moving more west and possibly dissipating rather than the northerly route. It will have a lot of hostile conditions to go through to hang on, and the main watch for this is to see how much it persists through it.
The wave in the west Caribbean is very much elongated this morning, and will likely remain weak, as some energy moves to the west, and parts stream to the north. If it does form, it will likely remain weak due to an upper area of low pressure in the central Gulf.
Update 10:30PM EDT 14 Aug 2013
Still a bit of disagreement in the forecast for 92L if it moves west, more northerly, or splits/elongates. The latter is the most likely. Which would, along with shear and other poor conditions, keep it relatively weak. Still worth watching over the next few days, but it looks unlikely to develop before it reaches the Yucatan at this point.
Updated 2:30PM EDT 14 Aug 2013
After a few quiet weeks post Dorian, the usual ramp up of storm activity in mid to late August is nearly upon us, and this year seems to be no exception.
There are two waves worth watching this week, 92L in the west Caribbean which may form toward the weekend, but likely will remain weak. This will be worth watching as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Those in the Yucatan peninsula may have to do with rain and stormy conditions Thursday and Friday. Future track depends on what occurs in the short term, odds favor it moving into Mexico, but there is a chance that it could veer more northerly and enter the central Gulf. There is a chance the storm will split or be elongated, which would likely keep it weaker. Either way most of the Gulf will want to watch this over the next few days, in particular the Northeast Gulf from LA to the Florida Panhandle basic on the forecast trends that have occurred since this morning.
Recon is scheduled to check out this area tomorrow. It is mid August and things can change rapidly with systems in this area this time of year, so check in on it often, and this system is an extremely difficult forecast with evidence to support both west and northerly movement of the system.
The other is 93L well in the east Atlantic, which will have time to be watched as it moves generally westward, odds favor it it staying out to sea or dissipating, but persistence is the key on these waves. Since earlier this system indeed has become better organized and may develop within the next few days, if not later tonight.
{{NorthGulfRadar}}
{{NortheastGulfRadar}}
{{StormLinks|Erin|05|5|2013|05|Erin}}}
{{StormLinks|92L|92|6|2013|92|Yucatan Wave (92L)}}
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