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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
October Arrives in the Tropics
      Tue Oct 01 2013 08:53 AM

8:58 AM EDT 2 October 2013 Update
Jerry Continues to be mostly stationary, but movement toward the northeast is still expected in the few days.

The area in the northwest Caribbean will be under some of the best conditions it will have over today and tomorrow, so if it develops, it likely would be tonight or tomorrow. Those along the Central to Northeastern Gulf will want to watch this, but even if it develops, this system likely will be mostly a rain event.

Aircraft recon is scheduled to check out the Caribbean system this afternoon.


Radar Recording of 97L approach to Cancun ( Alternate Animator )

{{NortheastGulfRadar}}

{{StormCarib}}



Original Update
October has arrived in this relatively quiet year in the Atlantic Tropics. With Tropical Storm Jerry stationary for a while, but expected to move northeast later in the week.

97L in the Western Caribbean has somewhat of a chance to develop later in the week, about 50/50 shot then, but conditions ahead of it don't really support much.

Odds favor this system being sheared apart and bringing rainfall to the northeast Gulf and Florida, still the next day or so will tell if the chances increase for some development before then.

The best chance for development is while it's still in the northwest Caribbean or extreme southern Gulf. Once in the central Gulf, the system likely will weaken when it nears land because of increasing shear.

{{StormLinks|Karen|12|12|2013|12|Karen}}
(Note: Skeetobite isn't updating properly on invests, the graphic above does not represent 97L's current position)

{{StormLinks|Jerry|11|11|2013|11|Jerry}}

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* October Arrives in the Tropics MikeCAdministrator Tue Oct 01 2013 08:53 AM
. * * Re: October Arrives in the Tropics OrlandoDan   Thu Oct 03 2013 06:30 AM
. * * Re: October Arrives in the Tropics Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Oct 03 2013 01:24 AM
. * * Re: October Arrives in the Tropics M.A.   Wed Oct 02 2013 07:06 PM
. * * Re: October Arrives in the Tropics scottsvb   Wed Oct 02 2013 06:51 PM
. * * Re: October Arrives in the Tropics MichaelA   Wed Oct 02 2013 06:31 PM
. * * Re: October Arrives in the Tropics cieldumort   Wed Oct 02 2013 06:01 PM
. * * Re: October Arrives in the Tropics MichaelA   Wed Oct 02 2013 04:32 PM
. * * Re: October Arrives in the Tropics MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 02 2013 04:13 PM
. * * Re: October Arrives in the Tropics Lamar-Plant City   Wed Oct 02 2013 03:40 PM
. * * Re: October Arrives in the Tropics Wingman51   Wed Oct 02 2013 03:24 PM
. * * Re: October Arrives in the Tropics scottsvb   Wed Oct 02 2013 01:39 PM
. * * Re: October Arrives in the Tropics M.A.   Wed Oct 02 2013 01:16 PM

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