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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Nate) , Major: 64 (Maria) Florida - Any: 74 (Irma) Major: 74 (Irma)
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Weather Bloggers >> Blogger Discussion

doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Are Seasonal Forecasts Worthwhile
      Tue Nov 05 2013 01:28 PM

I thought I remember that last year there was some discussion of Colorado State dropping the publishing of the seasonal forecast due to reliability probabilities being lower that expected. I think that is proving to be the case, but school is still out. There are so many variables such as a gaseous atmosphere and a liquid sea and a complete understanding of them is still a work in progress. Probabilities that range a little higher than 50/50 which is near where this part of the science is, I think, may have some utilitarian value in planning if only to trend toward caution in the face of a threat to public safety. But on a personal level it is nothing more than an interesting participatory sport. Kind of fun.

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doug

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Are Seasonal Forecasts Worthwhile? Owlguin Tue Nov 05 2013 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Are Seasonal Forecasts Worthwhile Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Nov 01 2013 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Are Seasonal Forecasts Worthwhile doug   Tue Nov 05 2013 01:28 PM

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