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Archives >> 2014 Storm Forum

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2014
      Wed Jan 01 2014 12:34 AM

Its the start of a New Year and time to consider the initial outlook for tropical cyclone activity during 2014 in the Atlantic basin. After three highly active years from 2010 to 2012, tropical cyclone activity dropped quite a bit during the 2013 season. Although there were 13 named storms - a slightly above normal number, the season produced just two hurricanes and no major hurricanes. Last year in the Outlook I noted that there has never been 4 seasons in a row with a high level of activity and 2013 kept that premise intact.

With only two hurricanes, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the basin was quite low - and 2013 was not an El Nino year. The downward trend in activity is likely to continue for two reasons: 1) the latest NCEP SST Forecast issued on December 30th, 2013, predicts Northern Hemisphere ENSO neutral conditions for the Spring of 2014 and El Nino conditions in the 3.4 region for the Summer of 2014. The NCEP Forecast seems reasonable, and there is a good chance that at least a Moderate El Nino will exist for the August through October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. 2) 2013 was the first year since 1994 without a major hurricane (the last season with just two hurricanes was 1982). With the expectation for lower tropical cyclone totals in the Atlantic basin in 2014, its quite possible that the so-called 25-year cycle of peak activity in the basin (which actually has never been exactly 25 years) could be over.

Unlike recent years when it was difficult to pinpoint a good analog year, 2014 has a bunch of them. The best analog seems to be 1963 - here is the list with corresponding storm totals:

1. 1963 9/7/2
2. 1979 9/5/2
3. 1982 6/2/1
4. 1968 8/4/0
5. 1991 8/4/2
6. 2002 11/4/2

With western Atlantic SSTs expected to remain on the warm side during the 2014 season, I'll lean toward the first two analogs with an initial slightly below normal outlook of 9 named storms and 5 hurricanes with 2 of the hurricanes reaching major hurricane status of Cat III or higher (9/5/2). If the trend toward a more significant El Nino becomes evident in the late Spring, the final forecast may require a downward adjustment.

Now is the time to start posting your own numbers for the upcoming season - and you can revise them as often as you wish until this thread gets closed on June 1st. Remember to post precise numbers rather than a range of numbers. Note that rationale for your forecast is not required. At the end of the season we'll look back and see if we did a little better than last year.
Cheers,
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for 2014 Ed DunhamAdministrator Wed Jan 01 2014 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 cieldumort   Sat May 31 2014 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 vpbob21   Sat May 31 2014 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 beachcrafts   Thu May 29 2014 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Bloodstar   Thu May 29 2014 09:38 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 GlenJohnson   Sun May 25 2014 08:15 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 MichaelA   Sun May 25 2014 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Lamar-Plant City   Sun May 25 2014 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Sun May 25 2014 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 MichaelA   Sat May 24 2014 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 doug   Sun May 18 2014 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri May 23 2014 01:27 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat May 24 2014 09:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jun 01 2014 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 - The Final Tally Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Nov 30 2014 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri May 30 2014 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 IMTechspec   Sat May 31 2014 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Ed in Va   Sat May 31 2014 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Lamar-Plant City   Sat May 24 2014 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Lamar-Plant City   Thu May 22 2014 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 gsand   Sat May 10 2014 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Doombot!   Sun Apr 27 2014 10:07 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Apr 16 2014 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Hurricane29   Wed Apr 16 2014 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 MikeCAdministrator   Thu Apr 10 2014 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Mar 06 2014 12:59 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Apr 11 2014 01:41 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 07 2014 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Hurricane29   Wed Apr 16 2014 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 B.C.Francis   Sun Apr 20 2014 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 rmbjoe1954   Wed Apr 23 2014 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Wingman51   Fri Apr 11 2014 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 M.A.   Tue Apr 08 2014 07:47 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 B.C.Francis   Thu Apr 10 2014 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 GlenJohnson   Sat Jan 18 2014 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 B.C.Francis   Sun Jan 26 2014 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Mon Feb 03 2014 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 B.C.Francis   Mon Feb 24 2014 06:46 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2014 JoshuaK   Wed Feb 26 2014 04:22 PM

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