Models have shifted a bit east today, with the Euro suggesting a weakness in the ridge ahead, which decreases the likelihood of a US mainland impact slightly.
It will probably develop sometime tomorrow, and models may be a bit better organized tomorrow night or on Friday. Recon is scheduled to fly out there tomorrow, so around then for an upgrade is a good bet.
With the wild swing in models from the Gulf near TX/LA yesterday to today with Florida and or out to sea with the Euro, the answer probably lies in the middle.
If there were an impact in Florida, it would be mid next week. The experimental FIM model is showing the most disturbing track at the moment. However to repeat, this is unlikely to occur, but we should watch the trends of the system and the official forecast when the system is tracked.
Still with that, and the GFS runs showing this, it is important to watch for trends, and to see if this persists or moves away like the Euro suggests. If it does manage to stay north of Hispaniola, then the chances for a large storm are much greater.
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