Yet more changes for morning model runs, GFS now keeps the system out to sea once past the Caribbean. That has gone from near Houston TX to re-curving out to sea in two days. This is the reason why early model runs before a storm develops are only useful in the very very short term. Beyond 24-48 hours, it's not worth much.
If and when the system develops we should know more, but the trend of the Euro and GFS moving out to sea is a good sign, and is reducing the chances for a US impact. Still the trends and actual condition of the system must be monitored for a bit,. There is a good chance models will swing back again. Based on the current position, and the fact that it's moved north, it looks like the odds now currently favor it staying east of the US. But only slightly, this could swing again just like the models.
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