As noted in the Storm Forum, the longer it takes for any consolidation and development to occur, the less likely it would be for the system to remain at sea - and right now, that might be the best trend to monitor. The long range models have a tough time handling a system that does not yet have a well defined center - and the net result is a wide swing in forecast track from run to run. While the consensus models have shifted eastward (along with the GFS and Euro), some of the other often reliable models like the HWRF (southeast Florida) and the UKMET (Florida Straits) have not. Until (and if) the Invest area really begins to organize, even the 5-day track cannot be determined with any reasonable level of certainty, but its always appropriate to review your personal hurricane preparation procedures. When it comes to a potential tropical cyclone threat, a 'false alarm' is the best case outcome. ED
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