As noted in the Storm Forum, the longer it takes for any consolidation and development to occur, the less likely it would be for the system to remain at sea - and right now, that might be the best trend to monitor. The long range models have a tough time handling a system that does not yet have a well defined center - and the net result is a wide swing in forecast track from run to run. While the consensus models have shifted eastward (along with the GFS and Euro), some of the other often reliable models like the HWRF (southeast Florida) and the UKMET (Florida Straits) have not. Until (and if) the Invest area really begins to organize, even the 5-day track cannot be determined with any reasonable level of certainty, but its always appropriate to review your personal hurricane preparation procedures. When it comes to a potential tropical cyclone threat, a 'false alarm' is the best case outcome. ED
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 27304
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center