18Z GFS is still a recurve, but model initialization still seems to be off.
The HRWF model takes a hurricane into South Florida Wednesday (during the day). That model has been very consistent with the track, albeit it makes landfall in Wednesday instead of Tuesday night now.
Best guess at a center position is east of Guadelope about 260 miles, at roughly 16N 58W
Based on the current runs (again, with the caveat that the system still has not formed), the Bahamas or just east will be the tipping point for either a westerly or northerly movement, based on how strong the ridge is at the time. The exact timing is going to be immensely critical with that. It's a situation we haven't seen in a while in this area.
The system is moving fairly quickly to the west or slightly west northwest now, and remaining weak, which would actually allow the gap in the ridge to force it north. If it slows down/strengthens it has more of a chance to move west. This is atypical (normally it's the opposite), but with the ridging the way it is it is more likely.
That said, odds still favor (slightly) the out to sea scenario, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
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