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Archives 2010s >> 2014 Forecast Lounge

MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3951
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge
      Thu Aug 21 2014 08:40 PM

18Z GFS is still a recurve, but model initialization still seems to be off.

The HRWF model takes a hurricane into South Florida Wednesday (during the day). That model has been very consistent with the track, albeit it makes landfall in Wednesday instead of Tuesday night now.

Best guess at a center position is east of Guadelope about 260 miles, at roughly 16N 58W

Based on the current runs (again, with the caveat that the system still has not formed), the Bahamas or just east will be the tipping point for either a westerly or northerly movement, based on how strong the ridge is at the time. The exact timing is going to be immensely critical with that. It's a situation we haven't seen in a while in this area.

The system is moving fairly quickly to the west or slightly west northwest now, and remaining weak, which would actually allow the gap in the ridge to force it north. If it slows down/strengthens it has more of a chance to move west. This is atypical (normally it's the opposite), but with the ridging the way it is it is more likely.

That said, odds still favor (slightly) the out to sea scenario, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Cristobal Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator Thu Aug 21 2014 08:40 PM
. * * Re: TD #4 Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 07:15 PM
. * * Re: TD #4 Forecast Lounge berrywr   Sat Aug 23 2014 09:53 PM
. * * Re: TD #4 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 11:38 PM
. * * Re: TS Cristobal Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 24 2014 12:34 PM
. * * Re: TS Cristobal Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 25 2014 03:33 PM
. * * Re: TS Cristobal Forecast Lounge doug   Mon Aug 25 2014 04:08 PM
. * * Re: TD #4 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 24 2014 05:37 AM
. * * Re: TD #4 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge craigm   Sat Aug 23 2014 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge craigm   Sat Aug 23 2014 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge doug   Sat Aug 23 2014 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge berrywr   Sat Aug 23 2014 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Sat Aug 23 2014 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Fri Aug 22 2014 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 07:39 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge craigm   Fri Aug 22 2014 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge doug   Fri Aug 22 2014 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Fri Aug 22 2014 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 21 2014 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 21 2014 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 21 2014 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 20 2014 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 20 2014 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 20 2014 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 21 2014 07:32 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 21 2014 09:58 AM

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