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Archives 2010s >> 2014 Forecast Lounge

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge
      Fri Aug 22 2014 11:05 AM

Here is another hypothesis to mull over: A few days ago 96L was an active wave in the central Atlantic with another active wave a few hundred miles behind it. NHC stated in their Outlook that, as 96L consolidated and intensified, the wave behind it to its east would get absorbed by the developing 96L. But 96L never did consolidate as expected. I think that the center that the Recon found yesterday and the center that NHC has been tracking is the wave that was behind 96L. That wave was pulled rapidly northwest (yesterday) and then more westward (last night and today) by the circulation around 96L to its west. In fact, that eastward center hauled out at about 30 knots - and high pressure alone would not lift it to the northwest at such a high forward speed. The real center of 96L appears to be located just south of the Dominican Republic near 17.8N 69.5W at 22/14Z and its moving west at about 22 knots. This is probably the center that the GFS initialized on. The robust forward speed indicates that the ridge to the north is still strong. But which center will eventually develop (if any)? The center south of Hispaniola is going to have some significant land interaction but it has better overall structure than the center to the north. Indeed a tough call because if the center to the south does eventually develop ( i.e., a center relocation), the eventual 'out to sea' scenario becomes a little iffy since the models would respond with a westward adjustment. Still a lot of unknowns with this Invest.
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Cristobal Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 22 2014 11:05 AM
. * * Re: TD #4 Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 07:15 PM
. * * Re: TD #4 Forecast Lounge berrywr   Sat Aug 23 2014 09:53 PM
. * * Re: TD #4 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 11:38 PM
. * * Re: TS Cristobal Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 24 2014 12:34 PM
. * * Re: TS Cristobal Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 25 2014 03:33 PM
. * * Re: TS Cristobal Forecast Lounge doug   Mon Aug 25 2014 04:08 PM
. * * Re: TD #4 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 24 2014 05:37 AM
. * * Re: TD #4 Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 07:02 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 12:11 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge craigm   Sat Aug 23 2014 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 09:34 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge craigm   Sat Aug 23 2014 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 10:18 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 23 2014 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge doug   Sat Aug 23 2014 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge berrywr   Sat Aug 23 2014 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Sat Aug 23 2014 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Fri Aug 22 2014 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 07:39 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 22 2014 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge craigm   Fri Aug 22 2014 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge doug   Fri Aug 22 2014 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Fri Aug 22 2014 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 21 2014 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 21 2014 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 21 2014 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 20 2014 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 20 2014 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 20 2014 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 21 2014 07:32 AM
. * * Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 21 2014 09:58 AM

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