Here is another hypothesis to mull over: A few days ago 96L was an active wave in the central Atlantic with another active wave a few hundred miles behind it. NHC stated in their Outlook that, as 96L consolidated and intensified, the wave behind it to its east would get absorbed by the developing 96L. But 96L never did consolidate as expected. I think that the center that the Recon found yesterday and the center that NHC has been tracking is the wave that was behind 96L. That wave was pulled rapidly northwest (yesterday) and then more westward (last night and today) by the circulation around 96L to its west. In fact, that eastward center hauled out at about 30 knots - and high pressure alone would not lift it to the northwest at such a high forward speed. The real center of 96L appears to be located just south of the Dominican Republic near 17.8N 69.5W at 22/14Z and its moving west at about 22 knots. This is probably the center that the GFS initialized on. The robust forward speed indicates that the ridge to the north is still strong. But which center will eventually develop (if any)? The center south of Hispaniola is going to have some significant land interaction but it has better overall structure than the center to the north. Indeed a tough call because if the center to the south does eventually develop ( i.e., a center relocation), the eventual 'out to sea' scenario becomes a little iffy since the models would respond with a westward adjustment. Still a lot of unknowns with this Invest. ED
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