At 123 hours out it still is well east of Florida, good news, as it's not pushing landfall on this run, however the overall trend west did continue, so it may change (either way) again since the storm has not formed yet.
in the frames immediately after this it starts heading north northeast (slowly) even further away from the coast, and by 150 hours is heading out to sea. So nothing really changes tonight, weak wave prevented from organizing by land interaction, may or may not be picked up, but odds favor it staying out to sea. It slips by Bermuda to the west as well.
Worth continuing to be watched through the weekend. Those in the Bahamas need to keep close watch on this, as watches/warnings may go up relatively suddenly tomorrow.
Other 0z/18z interpolated early cycle guidance (so far) has an unusually large spread going from the eastern gulf all the way toward well east of Bermuda.
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