The morning run, (6z) of the GFS is back west to landfall south Florida (Afternoon Wednesday time frame). But a much much weaker storm. So the GFS has shifted westward again.
The HRWF shows a brush, or landfall along the Florida east coast now. The 0z Euro run cuts it due north over the Bahamas and out to sea. However, the more recent 6Z HRWF cuts it way right and way strong out to sea.
So basically this morning, no change. Slight nod to out to sea, but no guarantee for that by any stretch. The storm continues to be disrupted by Hispaniola. Intensity of the storm will be an unknown, but models and the pattern suggest it may stay weaker, but that's way even more of a guess than the track itself. Development is fairly likely today once it gets away from the mountains of Hispaniola. Still a lot of unknowns with 96L.
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