Loc: Austin, Tx
A Very Weak Erika Still in the Caribbean?
Mon Aug 24 2015 10:46 PM
8 AM EDT 29 Aug 2015 Update
NHC 8AM Advisory updates with comments that suggest Erika may be dissipating now. With a large split in the energy and an uncertain center, (may be more of an trough now) the system could have its last advisory at 11AM. On the flip side recon is still finding decent SMFR winds and just barely started to investigate the system.
The official center is now north of the island to match the circulation visible on satellite, which would shift the "cone" east again if it were to maintain itself.
Hopefully the end of Erika is near, and Hispaniola has claimed another system. Unfortunately this also means extreme flooding in Haiti.
7 AM EDT 29 Aug 2015 Update
Erika is officially still in the Caribbean this morning, with the highly uncertain official center south of the eastern tip of Cuba. It remains a highly unorganized tropical system, fairly weak now and may weaken to a depression later.
On the current forecast track no watches will likely be issued for south Florida, but there may still be some rain along the west coast with that track.
Recon is on their way this morning to attempt to find a better center fix, as the current one may be suspect.
The forecast track remains highly uncertain.
99L is now being tracked, and it may affect the Cape Verde islands directly.
10 years ago this morning, Hurricane Katrina made landfall near Buras, LA.
5:30AM EDT 28 Aug 2015 Update
Erika is barely recognizable as a tropical cyclone this morning, and may devolve into an open wave at some point today. Despite this, a large area of 40 to 50MPH winds exists at the surface to the east and southeast of the alleged center, and flooding rains are occurring over the eastern Caribbean.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for:.
* Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic * Haiti* Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
* Northwestern Bahamas
8:30AM EDT 27 Aug 2015 Update
Tropical Storm Watches are now up for the Central Southeastern Bahamas (Turks and Caicos) as well as more portions otf the Dominican Republic.
Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward
and southward to Isla Saona
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Central Bahamas
Erika is moving generally west tonight as recon is out there sampling Erika. It is expected to move more towards the west northwest soon. It may cross portions of the Dominican Republic.
The forecast track still takes it very close or over parts of Florida after crossing the Bahamas, but there remains a large degree of uncertainty i n the track and intensity of Erika at that time. Watches may be issues for portions of Florida Tomorrow night if the track holds.
11AM EDT 27 Aug 2015 Update
11AM forecast track has a discussion which Pasch states as "Unusually Uncertain" because of the complexities of a reforming Erika, potential land interaction, and model flip flopping. It reads like they punted on the forecast track until they can regroup with new data. Still nothing certain here, it could likely keep shifting west.
The current NHC forcast has Erika crawling painfully slowly just off the east Florida coast.
9AM EDT 27 Aug 2015 Update
Tropical Storm Erika remains weak this morning, and recon has found the center reformed to the south a bit, which will likely greatly change the forecast track to the west, and may force it over Hispaniola, which could weaken or dissipate the system. Expect the forecast cone to move left at 11AM.
Erika currently is bringing flooded rains to the island of Dominica.
4PM EDT 26 Aug 2015 Update
Like Danny before her, Erika is running into progressively greater directional shear as she gets closer to the Leewards, with the low level center now essentially void of deep convection, which has been displaced to the south and east. This shunting of the CDO has now allowed the dry air surrounding her to begin working in, and recon is finding the cyclone in a weakened state.
Despite the exposed center, lower winds, and higher minimum pressure, Erika is still tracking west-northwesterly. On this course the cyclone, or what is left of it should shear take more of a toll, could avoid the tallest terrain of the islands, but possibly not the regions of greatest shear ahead.
6AM EDT 26 Aug 2015 Update
New Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and the British Virgin Islands.
WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT:
Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.
Deep convection flared up with Erika overnight, and the cyclone appears to be entering an intensification phase, with the most recent satellite images showing very deep convection atop the estimated center of circulation. Given current trends, model runs depicting a stronger, more resilient Erika should be looked at closely.
In addition to Erika, once again the Hawaiian Islands are eyeing yet another potential impact from a tropical cyclone during that basin's extraordinarily active season. More on this latest threat in the Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Lounge
Not a time to panic yet, but those along the east coast of Florida, particularly South Florida, should take care of any loose ends in the hurricane plan before any potential rush.
11 PM 25 Aug 2015 Update
Tropical Storm Watches are now up for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.
Erika is holding as a minimal Tropical Storm, the convection mostly sheared off south of the center still. The NHC currently forecasts a Hurricane over the Bahamas in 5 days, but with the caveat of a high degree of uncertainty of track and strength. Lixion Avila, a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center, mentions that Erika could even dissipate while over the northeastern Caribbean. Any real chance to strengthen depends on if it survives and makes it near the Bahamas.
That said, within the last hour a significant burst of convection has shown up on satellite near or just west of the center.
5 PM 25 Aug 2015 Update
Erika is holding as a tropical Storm. The 5PM forecast track forecasts Erika to be a hurricane Sunday afternoon over Grand Bahama west of Nassau. The forecast is highly uncertain, with much disparity in the models.
This does, however, put parts of south Florida in the cone.
11:00 AM 25 Aug 2015 Update
Tropical Strom Watches now up Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy.
7:30 AM 25 Aug 2015 Update
Those in the northeast Caribbean, Bahamas, Florida and the Southeast United States should closely monitor the progression of Erika.
The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting Erika to be a hurricane and crossing over the Bahamas this weekend after scraping near or over the Northeastern Leewards Thursday.
This places it in a position to potentially recurve or hit Florida (or elsewhere in the southeast) next week as a hurricane (possibly Major), so it will be very important to keep watch over this system as there are lots of uncertainties with the future track of Erika. A lot will depend on how strong, and when Erika gets.
Erika's appearance is weaker today, and has an exposed center of circulation, conditions generally will be unfavorable for the next few days before it reaches better conditions. it is forecast to reach hurricane intensity on Saturday.
Tropical Storm watches for the islands are up : Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla,
Saba, St. Eustatius
Parts of the Bahamas may have hurricane watches up later in the week.
Invest 98L, the large and vigorous tropical wave following on the heels of Danny, has been determined to have developed sufficient organization for the NHC to begin advisories on our fifth tropical cyclone of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. As 05L already has had winds at or above the 40MPH threshold today, the first advisory reflects this as well, and we are now tracking Tropical Storm Erika.
Erika is forecast to gradually intensify while tracking west-northwest, and begin feeling a pull more to the northwest later in the period.
In addition to Tropical Storm Erika, we are still keeping an eye on Danny's remnants for any signs that it may try to reorganize, but the odds are not in his favor, and the remnant low is most likely just bringing much needed rain showers and a few storms to the northern Caribbean, which has been suffering through a drought.
Out in Hawaii, Kilo is still weak and tracking generally well west of earlier forecasts, with the risk of a direct impact on the main islands continuing to decline.
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar Recording of Erika Approach
flhurricane Cuba Radar Recording of Erika approach
flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Erika approach
flhurricane San Juan, PR Radar Recording of Erika approach
Edited by MikeC (Sat Aug 29 2015 08:00 AM)