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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Nate) , Major: 64 (Maria) Florida - Any: 74 (Irma) Major: 74 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2016 Storm Forum

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2016
      Fri Jan 01 2016 02:07 AM

NCEP has revised their forecast and now expects that it will be mid Summer of 2016, rather than Spring, before the current strong El Nino moderates to ENSO neutral conditions in the Pacific 3.4 Region. If the forecast pans out, it would be normal to anticipate that early season (or pre-season) activity would be unlikely, however, their forecast also suggests above average SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea from January through June - so I wouldn't close the books on any early season activity just yet. At the moment the best analog years seem to be:

1998 - 14/10/3
1988 - 11/5/3
1966 - 11/7/3
2003 - 16/7/3

Six month SST forecasts are not exactly precision forecasts, but I would still anticipate ENSO Neutral by late July into August. With SSTs generally warmer in the basin, I'm going to start with an outlook for an above average level of activity with 14 named storms and 8 hurricanes with 3 of those hurricanes reaching 'major' status. We'll leave this thread open until the start of the Atlantic season on June 1st. You can post your own seasonal forecast numbers here and change them until the season starts. At the end of the 2016 season we'll take a look back and see how well we've done.
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator Fri Jan 01 2016 02:07 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 cieldumort   Tue May 31 2016 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue May 31 2016 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jun 01 2016 12:01 AM
. * * Outlook for 2016 - Final Tally Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Nov 26 2016 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 IMTechspec   Sat May 28 2016 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Kraig   Sat May 28 2016 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 vpbob21   Thu May 26 2016 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 gsand   Sat May 14 2016 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 M.A.   Wed May 18 2016 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 JoshuaK   Thu May 26 2016 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Lamar-Plant City   Thu May 26 2016 02:00 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 MichaelA   Tue May 10 2016 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 04 2016 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun May 29 2016 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue May 31 2016 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 EMS   Tue May 31 2016 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue May 10 2016 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 doug   Tue Feb 02 2016 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 MikeCAdministrator   Thu Apr 07 2016 09:12 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 craigm   Thu Apr 14 2016 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 ftlaudbob   Sat Apr 30 2016 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 IsoFlame   Sun Jan 10 2016 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 stormtiger   Fri May 27 2016 10:14 PM

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