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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2016 Storm Forum

cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Outlook for 2016
      Tue May 31 2016 11:41 PM

My thinking has been going back and forth some, but I am comfortable enough with 17/9/3 (including Alex and Bonnie, which we have already had). This is on the high to very high end of most mainstream forecasts, and is admittedly not with great confidence.

Some analog years that stand out more to me than others include: 58, 66, 73, 88, 92, 98, 03 and 2010.

Whether or not the season ends up as 'active' as 17/9/3, I also expect a much much greater-than-average risk of systems affecting the southern through eastern United States - as well as much higher-than-average odds that any systems which do push inland, to be able to maintain further inland.

For Hawaii, the West & Southwest: Not to the same extent as in 2015, I also put Hawaii, the West and Southwest US at a higher-than-average risk of impacts from tropical cyclones (more likely in the form of flash flooding, waves, etc., than any sort of direct hit- but still possible)..

For the North Atlantic: 17/9/3 final. With above average threats, overall.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator Tue May 31 2016 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 cieldumort   Tue May 31 2016 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue May 31 2016 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jun 01 2016 12:01 AM
. * * Outlook for 2016 - Final Tally Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Nov 26 2016 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 IMTechspec   Sat May 28 2016 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Kraig   Sat May 28 2016 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 vpbob21   Thu May 26 2016 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 gsand   Sat May 14 2016 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 M.A.   Wed May 18 2016 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 JoshuaK   Thu May 26 2016 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Lamar-Plant City   Thu May 26 2016 02:00 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 MichaelA   Tue May 10 2016 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 04 2016 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun May 29 2016 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue May 31 2016 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 EMS   Tue May 31 2016 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue May 10 2016 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 doug   Tue Feb 02 2016 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 MikeCAdministrator   Thu Apr 07 2016 09:12 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 craigm   Thu Apr 14 2016 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 ftlaudbob   Sat Apr 30 2016 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 IsoFlame   Sun Jan 10 2016 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 stormtiger   Fri May 27 2016 10:14 PM

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