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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2016 Storm Forum

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2016
      Wed Jun 01 2016 12:01 AM

A total of 18 site members (one more than last year) participated in the 2016 version of our annual exercise to guess the level of activity in the Atlantic Basin in terms of Total Number of Named Storms / Number of Hurricanes / and the number of those hurricanes that reach Major Hurricane status (Cat III or stronger). The guesstimates ranged from a low of 12 named storms (myself and three others) to 17 named storms by cieldumort - and that is probably the smallest range that we have ever had. It means that all of us expect an above average number of named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic this year - and we have already had Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Bonnie. The average of all inputs was 14 / 8 / 3. The forecasted number of hurricanes ranged from 6 to 11 and the number of major hurricanes was 2 to 5.

From the pros:
On 4/14, CSU: 13/6/2 with an ACE of 93
On 4/15, TSR: 12/6/2, however, on 5/27 TSR revised their forecast to 17/9/4 - a rather significant change and they based this increase primarily on the NAO trending negative. They increased their ACE from 80 to 130.
On 5/27, NOAA: 13/6/3 (averages of their range of numbers)

This thread is now closed, however, at the end of the season we'll check back with the actual season totals and see if we were in the ballpark. Thanks to all of you that participated!
Cheers,
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator Wed Jun 01 2016 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 cieldumort   Tue May 31 2016 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue May 31 2016 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Jun 01 2016 12:01 AM
. * * Outlook for 2016 - Final Tally Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Nov 26 2016 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 IMTechspec   Sat May 28 2016 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Kraig   Sat May 28 2016 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 vpbob21   Thu May 26 2016 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 gsand   Sat May 14 2016 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 M.A.   Wed May 18 2016 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 JoshuaK   Thu May 26 2016 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Lamar-Plant City   Thu May 26 2016 02:00 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 MichaelA   Tue May 10 2016 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed May 04 2016 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun May 29 2016 08:13 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue May 31 2016 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 EMS   Tue May 31 2016 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue May 10 2016 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 doug   Tue Feb 02 2016 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 MikeCAdministrator   Thu Apr 07 2016 09:12 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 craigm   Thu Apr 14 2016 11:49 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 ftlaudbob   Sat Apr 30 2016 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 IsoFlame   Sun Jan 10 2016 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2016 stormtiger   Fri May 27 2016 10:14 PM

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