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Archives >> 2016 News Talkbacks

Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland
Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic
      Sun Aug 28 2016 10:10 PM

Newly formed tropical systems are especially uncertain both in intensity and track. Until a system has sustained tropical storm strength for at least 12 hours I generally throw out most forecasts - this is because a well defined closed system is needed for the model initialization.

Stating that rapid changes are possible is necessary to indicate the uncertainty in this forecast - and important to note as when any system approaches the US mainland this site gets a large uptick in visitors that are not weather geeks like many of us, and are not familiar with storms.

The risk is in dismissing a system "it's only forecast to be a tropical storm" when the intensity forecast is highly uncertain. Even the NHC states "the confidence in the intensity forecast is even lower than usual for this system."

This storm has to traverse a high shear environment over the next day or so, which the ECMWF is indicating could end the system before it becomes a threat to land. If it survives, we could be looking at a tropical storm or hurricane at landfall (GFDL shows a tropical storm; HWRF shows a category 1 hurricane). It's over the Gulf, and that is always a good breeding ground for tropical systems.

Give it a 12-18 hours (tropical storm strength + 12 hours) and we should get a better idea of what the system will do.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic cieldumort Sun Aug 28 2016 10:10 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic Rasvar   Wed Aug 31 2016 12:13 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2016 11:14 AM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic scottsvb   Wed Aug 31 2016 10:43 AM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2016 07:55 AM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 30 2016 11:05 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic Colleen A.   Tue Aug 30 2016 10:54 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic Steve H1   Tue Aug 30 2016 09:32 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic Colleen A.   Tue Aug 30 2016 06:43 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 30 2016 05:50 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic cieldumort   Tue Aug 30 2016 02:53 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic Hawkeyewx   Tue Aug 30 2016 01:22 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic scottsvb   Tue Aug 30 2016 10:34 AM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic Marknole   Tue Aug 30 2016 10:19 AM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic cieldumort   Tue Aug 30 2016 06:10 AM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic scottsvb   Mon Aug 29 2016 09:17 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic OrlandoDan   Mon Aug 29 2016 05:15 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 29 2016 05:05 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic gvl, fl   Mon Aug 29 2016 04:23 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic cieldumort   Mon Aug 29 2016 02:12 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 29 2016 01:35 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 29 2016 09:32 AM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic Hawkeyewx   Mon Aug 29 2016 09:08 AM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 29 2016 07:31 AM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic Random Chaos   Sun Aug 28 2016 10:10 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2016 10:03 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2016 09:33 PM
. * * Re: TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic jdc0616   Sun Aug 28 2016 09:07 PM
. * * Re: TD#8 Forms - Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2016 08:19 PM
. * * Re: TD#8 Forms - Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2016 07:57 PM
. * * Re: TD#8 Forms - Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic cieldumort   Sun Aug 28 2016 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2016 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2016 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2016 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2016 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic SouthGAwx   Sun Aug 28 2016 10:20 AM

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