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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
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General Discussion >> 2017 Storm Forum

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2017
      Sun Jan 01 2017 12:34 AM

About a month ago it was difficult to identify a suitable analog year for the 2017 tropical Atlantic activity and it still is - no real firm indicators one way or another, however 1984 (13/5/1) is starting to emerge as a possible analog year. After starting with a weak La Nina, ENSO Neutral conditions are forecast to exist through most of 2017 in the tropical east Pacific. I'll start with 13/5/1 for 2017 and adust the numbers as necessary when the start of the season gets closer. Those numbers would suggest that 2017 would be an above normal season in the Atlantic basin - but its early. The current ridging pattern in the subtropical Atlantic is keeping SSTs on the warm side this winter (so far). 1984 did feature some late season storms and if the pattern holds, 2017 might do the same.

Once again we will keep this thread open until the season starts on June 1st and you can input your own guesstimates on the 2017 numbers until then - and revise them as often as you wish. As a group, CFHC did a fantastic job last year on the seasonal totals - best ever.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for 2017 Ed DunhamAdministrator Sun Jan 01 2017 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2017 gsand   Sat Apr 01 2017 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2017 SouthGAwx   Thu Mar 16 2017 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2017 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Jan 06 2017 05:51 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2017 doug   Tue Apr 11 2017 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2017 MikeCAdministrator   Thu Apr 20 2017 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2017 M.A.   Fri Apr 21 2017 07:37 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2017 doug   Sun Mar 05 2017 09:35 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2017 doug   Tue Mar 21 2017 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2017 Lamar-Plant City   Fri Mar 24 2017 12:31 PM

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