cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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TS CINDY Lounge
Sun Jun 11 2017 11:01 AM
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A tropical gyre appears to be developing near and over Central America. For the past week longer range global models have been fairly consistent in cooking up a tropical cyclone from this gyre that heads into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend of June 17th and/or into the following week.
Much run-to-run variability even exists within the individual models themselves, let alone among competing models. However, as the development of the gyre seems to be verifying, and the trend for tropical cyclone genesis in the western Atlantic is very consistent among all major models, a thread is being started on this still non-existent, but forecast future cyclone.
The overall setup and environment in the western Atlantic is likely to be conducive for tropical cyclogenesis to occur and strengthen in a broad sense around mid-month.
One potential mitigating factor is the formation of a stronger east Pac system in the near term. Models do not seem to have a good handle on East Pac Invest 92E, which has formed just west of Central America in that basin, and which could disrupt things for the western Atlantic. The more plausible scenario would be for 92E to track far enough west as to allow the gyre over Central America to continue cooking unimpeded, but this is TBD.
Another potential obstacle for this 'future cyclone' looks to be the introduction of some dry, subsident air during the latter half of June.
How much if at all either of the two obstacles noted above are present next weekend and the following week (June 19-25) could be deciding factors.
0z June 11 runs of the ECMWF & GFS 9 Days Out
Image credits: Tropical Tidbits
This system has not yet developed, and may in fact not do so at all. However, if and once a disturbance forms we will update the title and thread with any relevant Invest tag, storm number, name, etc.
This is where to put mid to long range thoughts on this feature's potential for development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are appropriate here.
Title changed to reflect NHC Advisories for Tropical Storm Cindy. PTC THREE[, formerly Invest 93L, has become a tropical storm as of June 20th - Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Tue Jun 20 2017 01:46 PM)
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