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The disturbance over the deep tropical Atlantic has become better organized today, although a pair of ASCAT-A and B passes this morning indicated that the system does not have a closed low-level circulation, which isn't surprising given the fast translational speed of the system. The ASCAT passes showed peak winds of near 30 kt well north of the center, and given that the environment is expected to be conducive for some additional development before the shear increases in the eastern Caribbean Sea, strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Windward Islands in 36 to 48 hours.

The National Hurricane Center now has the option to issue advisories on disturbances that are not yet tropical cyclones, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous policy this was not possible. These systems are known as Potential Tropical Cyclones in
advisory products and are numbered from the same list as depressions. Because of the threat to the Windward Islands, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and the appropriate warnings have been issued by the respective governments in the Windward Islands. Advisory packages will continue until the threat of tropical-storm-force winds for land areas sufficiently diminishes, although if the system becomes a tropical cyclone, the normal rules for discontinuing advisories would apply. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.

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-Ciel


18 June 3:30PM EDT Update
For 93L, Aircraft Recon Cancelled for lack of a defined center. Trough extends from "Best track" on graphic toward the tip of Cuba. System could develop anywhere along there. mid level likely won't move down. Western and North Central Gulf coasts (toward the Panhandle) need to keep watch on this system, things could change once it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico.




The strength of the storm may not be as important as the rainfall, all the tropical moisture streaming in to the Gulf states on the system could cause a rainfall threat.

18 June 7AM EDT Update

93L is looking better organized this morning, and the models are slowly converging on an area between TX and the Florida Panhandle, with potential impacts as soon as Tuesday night those along these ares should monitor it closely. Expect a typical June sloppy system, but it is possible this could develop somewhat rapidly once in the Gulf, so it is very important to monitor it.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to check the area out today.



92L East of the islands is likely to have an impact on the southern leewards, but chances for development are down, at the very least it will bring a fair amount of rainfall for the islands, beyond that it is expected to be sheared apart in the east Caribbean.

If two storms become active in June at the same time, it will be the first time that has happened since 1968.

16 June 9PM EDT Update

The system in the Central Atlantic is now being tracked as Invest 92L. This system has a 60% chance for development over the next 5 days, and is heading generally westward toward the Southern Leeward islands. Based on model runs it would be near there on Tuesday.



The area in the Western Caribbean looks better this evening, but is still not an invest. Models diverge between a western Gulf of Mexico or Eastern Gulf of Mexico scenario, with the western one being slightly more probable. Still too soon to tell what happens with this system, it will likely cover a large area and bring a lot of moisture to wherever it goes. If it affects the Eastern gulf it would be Tuesday/Wed, if it moves west toward Mexico it would be mid to late next week. Check back over the weekend for any changes.

Original Update
NHC has recently upgraded the probability of Tropical Cyclone formation in the North Western Caribbean and Yucatan Peninsula Area to 50% over the next 5 days.

This is an area to watch on the next few days and over the weekend. Nothing too concerning right now other than another round of enhanced rains for Florida and possibly other parts of the Gulf, but there is enough of a chance that something may develop out of it to keep an eye on.

It's important to note that odds favor a disorganized rain maker, but based on models it could form to be a strong tropical storm in the Gulf on Monday or so, thus it's worth keeping a close eye on.

<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5" target="_blank">Latest 5 day Outlook from the National Hurricane Center</a>

<a href="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html" target="_blank">CIMSS North Atlantic Water Vapor Loop</a>

More information will come later, nothing has been tagged as an invest yet. Lounge discussion can be found <a href="http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=97643&gonew=1#UNREAD" target="_blank">Here</a> for this system.

Biloxi Lightgouse camera Live Stream:

{{YouTube|Tw3CCHxH8Pw}}
<a href="http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?252" target="_blank">Flhurricane Recording of Biloxi Lighthouse Cam</a>

Mark Sudduth/Hurricanetrack Video Stream for the system
{{YouTube|nJEMML0QJF0}}
See mark's position on a map here.

{{StormLinks|Potential 3|03|3|2017|03|Potential 3 (Was 93L/Gulf)}}

{{StormLinks|Bret|02|2|2017|02|Bret)}}

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Edited by MikeC (Tue Jun 20 2017 12:45 PM)

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