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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season?
      Wed Jul 05 2017 10:04 PM

Tropical Meteorology Project (Colorado State's Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell and, in memoriam, William M. Gray) released their July update today, and while only a step up from their June release, it is a jump from their April issue.

Incidentally, if you are not already following Philip Klotzbach on Twitter, you really need to do so. Much of the information I share here comes directly from his shares, and by following him, I guarantee you will glean invaluable information and insight into this and many a season, spanning oceans and decades.


The Colorado State team now anticipates a total of 15 named storms (NS), 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin this year. That would include the three named storms we have seen already. Their justification for the increase is as follows
Quote:

We now anticipate an above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season.The odds of a significant El Niño in 2017 have continued to diminish, and most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic remains anomalously warm.The lack of El Niño conditions typically leads to a lower shear environment in the tropical Atlantic, while a warmer than normal tropical Atlantic provides more fuel for developing tropical cyclones. In addition, a warmer than normal tropical Atlantic is generally associated with lower surface pressures, increased mid-level moisture and weaker trade winds, creating a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.




With the July update came their best analog years, which are as follows: 1953, 1969, 1979, 2004, 2006 and 2012. The average season totals of these years is 14.2 Named Storms, 8.2 Hurricanes and 3.3 Major Hurricanes, with an ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) value of 133, which also implies an above-average season.

The complete July update is available here (PDF).

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator Wed Jul 05 2017 10:04 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 27 2017 10:16 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 27 2017 10:18 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 27 2017 10:20 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Wed Oct 04 2017 09:35 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Wed Oct 04 2017 09:46 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 07 2017 12:26 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 07 2017 02:38 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 14 2017 04:22 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 14 2017 04:50 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 14 2017 10:31 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sat Oct 14 2017 04:53 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 24 2017 04:01 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 24 2017 03:59 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 24 2017 12:18 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 22 2017 01:21 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 20 2017 09:34 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE craigm   Thu Sep 21 2017 08:56 AM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 21 2017 12:52 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 21 2017 03:17 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE Keith B   Thu Sep 21 2017 06:56 PM
. * * Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE Keith B   Fri Sep 22 2017 04:48 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 20 2017 06:24 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? DarlynDeville   Wed Sep 20 2017 07:01 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? DarlynDeville   Wed Sep 20 2017 08:35 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 20 2017 03:22 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 18 2017 08:26 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 18 2017 04:53 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 13 2017 11:12 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 11 2017 02:26 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 10 2017 02:51 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 08 2017 05:55 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 08 2017 01:45 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 07 2017 04:03 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 06 2017 07:30 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 06 2017 06:50 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 06 2017 07:22 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 03 2017 12:48 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 01 2017 09:34 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 01 2017 09:03 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 01 2017 08:44 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Thu Aug 31 2017 10:02 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Mon Aug 14 2017 12:10 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? MichaelA   Tue Aug 22 2017 12:54 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Tue Aug 22 2017 03:32 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Aug 09 2017 02:26 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? Keith B   Wed Aug 09 2017 06:22 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Aug 09 2017 06:48 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Thu Jul 20 2017 07:04 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Thu Jul 20 2017 05:52 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Thu Jul 20 2017 05:34 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Thu Jul 20 2017 04:34 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Sun Jul 16 2017 07:49 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Tue Jul 18 2017 09:19 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Tue Jul 18 2017 09:47 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Mon Jul 10 2017 01:40 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Wed Jul 05 2017 10:04 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Tue Jun 20 2017 03:30 PM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Sat Jun 17 2017 04:06 AM
. * * Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 06 2017 02:15 AM

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