Quote: I noticed a similar phenomenon monitoring Matthew last year. The winds aloft, that are taken to be the true measure of the storm, aren't at all the winds that reach to the ground.
I've noticed this in multiple hurricanes over the years. Not sure how the NHC calculates the differences between flight level and surface winds but it appears their ratio is wrong -OR- combined with the 8 min average vs the 1 min average the numbers are radically different.
I've always though the NHC should adjust the "estimated" winds down to true wind speed once they had good ground based data (buoys or other known calibrated weather stations). However they seem to stick with flight level winds. I do believe some of this is CYA, better to estimate high then to give people a false sense of security with a Cat lower forecast. In the past I've seen report of gusts, micro bursts, mini-tornados, down drafts and other small-scale higher intensity winds in certain areas due localized environmental conditions during land falling 'canes.
-------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 18173
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center