Quote: I call it the tunnel effect.A High to the east and a trough to the west, and the storm has nowhere to go but stay in between them.
Yes this tunnel, window or gap (whatever word you want) arrival timing with Irma will be the key. However the other factor will be her latitude during the trek west. If she stays low she could miss the gap. However the models are trending North which allows the trough to scoop her up and away. At that point her size would determine how much the NE coast feels as she races by.
Her shape today is classic 'cane - round with really good outflow, just a bit small and some dry air ahead to fight thru.
Agree it is going to have a lot to do with timing.Here are the latest runs,You can see the tunnel effect.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 301813
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center