0z Euro: Very close but just north of the Caribbean Islands Tues-Wed, Through the Central and northwest Bahamas sep 9-11th. Cat 4 landfall near Charleston, SC overnight Sep 11-12th.
6z GFS: Misses Caribbean and Bahamas, turns north, closest approach to NC on sep 10 (faster than Euro), landfall near Atlantic City, NJ in the morning of Sep 10th. cat 3. and quickly moves out.
HWRF has cat 4 north of the Caribbean islands, HMON as well.
Canadian misses Caribbean and Bahamas and turns Irma out to sea (West of Bermuda, East of the US)
The GFS Ensembles concentrate around NC/VA this morning.
Two camps are faster moving storm GFS/GEFS that moves further north and the euro which has a slower moving storm, caught behind and further south. Euro also has a stronger storm and is much more dangerous for the Bahamas.
Too soon to tell beyond 5 days, but looking better for the Eastern Caribbean islands, but mixed for the Bahamas, and east coast seems more likely than not for a landfall. Where is still up in the air, SC/NC/VA seems to be the current midpoint. But FL/GA and north of VA still have a high chance, but unless the timing drastically changes Florida seems less likely. Out to sea is still a possibility as well, more likely than Florida.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 251556
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center