Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 67 (Nate) , Major: 85 (Maria) Florida - Any: 95 (Irma) Major: 95 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> 2017 Forecast Lounge

cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Trof in Bay of Campeche
      Sun Sep 03 2017 01:20 AM

Troffiness has been persistent in the Bay of Campeche for several days, and a few models' runs are once again sniffing out some development in the southwestern GOM during the coming week.

While not a strong development signal from most runs, we are now in the heart of not just any season, but what by all appearances is a serious one, so this thread will stay up and running until the threat, including that from development - if any - has completely passed.

0z September 3 Model Runs

GFS

Possible small, short-lived TD forms just offshore of Tampico, MX by 12z Thursday Sept 7 and gets shunted w/sw/s within 24 hours *in response to Mega Hurricane Irma* passing well to its ENE to NE. (Suffice it to say, if Irma has other plans, this track may not be valid). By Monday Sept 11, its remnants are sent scooting across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and into the East Pac, dry air pouring down behind it. Possible redevelopment in the East Pac beyond 10 days, and may attempt to track back north through the isthmus around the 14th - 18th.

CMC
Rapid development of a TD-TS offshore of Tampico, MX by 12z Monday Sept 4. Shunted off to the E/SE/S in response to Mega Hurricane Irma. Makes landfall as a strong Tropical Storm in the southern Bay of Campeche midday Thursday Sept 7, and then crosses the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and into the East Pac over the next day or so, where its remnants split in two - The easternmost remnant residual vorticity is swept NW-NNW from up and out of the East Pac by Mega Hurricane Irma, and becomes a new TD just south of Cuba Tuesday Sept 12, tracking northwest. The westernmost remnant helps energize a preexisting tropical cyclone (TS) just south of the isthmus, and this TC then crosses back north across and back into the extreme southern Bay of Campeche by 0z Wednesday Sept 13. That all should be enough to make anyone's head spin. Even more so if it verifies!

NAVGEM
Possible TD by 06z Wednesday Sept 6 off the coast of Tampico, MX. Tracks SW in response to Mega Hurricane Irma and makes landfall as a TS in the southern Bay of Campeche by 12z Saturday Sept 9. End of run.

ECMWF
Possible TD by 0z Wednesday Sept 4 off the coast of Tampico, MX. Over the next several days is shredded and sent flying SSW across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and into the East Pac in response to Mega Hurricane Irma.


In summary, if recent Irma forecasts come close to verifying, these genesis models do cook something up in the region, but quickly send it south across Mexico and into the East Pac. We'll be watching.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* HUR Katia Lounge cieldumortModerator Sun Sep 03 2017 01:20 AM
. * * Re: HUR Katia Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 10 2017 12:46 AM
. * * Re: TS Katia Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 06 2017 06:18 AM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Sep 05 2017 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Low in SW Gulf cieldumortModerator   Mon Sep 04 2017 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Trof in Bay of Campeche cieldumortModerator   Sun Sep 03 2017 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Possible New Development in Gulf Prospero   Fri Sep 01 2017 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Possible New Development in Gulf cieldumortModerator   Sat Sep 02 2017 02:58 AM
. * * Re: Possible New Development in Gulf EMS   Sat Sep 02 2017 10:28 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 15 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., danielw, Clark, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 4672

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center