Quote: With Harvey (and so far with Irma), the models are pretty tightly clustered. While there is overall movement, all of the packages seem to trend the same way at the same time.
Gotta assume the data, science and computer power have all increased leading to much better forecasting. I too remember when you could basically ignore the 5 day cone because it was so far off.
Overnight we had another shift S and W of said cone. This starting to look like a hybrid of a Charley / Wilma over land track. After going thru the middle to lower Keys it appears Irma would have a landfall on the SW coast between Naples and Sarasota (as Cat 4) with a track N to slightly NNE thru most of the state all the way to Jacksonville.
Given the environment Irma will likely be a Cat 5 today and maintain that (or darn close) until it reaches Puerto Rico with only ERC causes small up/down fluctuations.
-------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 181341
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center